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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10.c EDB Hurricane Helene Emerg Action Ratification1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AGENDA ITEM: Requested Ratification of Emergency Declaration for Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency)for Hurricane Helene. Date: September 27,2024 BACKGROUND: Hurricane Helene developed in the Gulf of Mexico from Monday, September 23, 2024 until making landfall on around midnight on September 27, 2024. As Executive Director, I initiated emergency preparations on Tuesday, September 24, 2024, in response to the evolving information regarding the potential impact of a significant storm event on the Clay County Utility Authority (CCUA) service area.I issued an Emergency Response Declaration to initate Emergency Response Operations(System Emergency) to mitigate and address the likely damage caused by Hurricane Helene. I respectfully request the Board of Supervisors ratify my Emergency Preparations and Response Declarations and supporting actions. I based my directions on continually developing information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM), and the Clay County Division of Emergency Management. I collaborated with the Senior Leadership Team and operational leaders in the development of our Emergency Response action plan. I communicated information to CCUA staff through a progression of memos, emails, texts, and telephone calls. As I write this executive summary, the issues we encountered through the storm center on our generators. Several transfer switches on the pump station generators did not automatically switch over when power from Clay Electric went out. Our teams switched to generator power manually without any issues. The generator serving the Pace Island Water Treatment Plant failed during the storm. Our teams moved the Water Treatment Department's portable generator to Pace Island and restored power to the plant. Due to the time of the generator failure and low customer water demand, we did not experience any pressure issues in the distribution system. Our teams will commence detailed damage assessments when we have daylight for visibility. Our team prepared for and performed Emergency Perparation and Response Operations in accordance with CCUA's Hurricane Preparedness & Storm Recovery Manual, May 2024. I commend the CCUA staff for their exceptional professionalism and teamwork during this significant hurricane that impacted our service area. REQUEST: I respectfully request the Board of Supervisors ratify my actions as Executive Director preparing for and responding to Hurricane Helene. ATTACHMENTS: //JDJ(Author) //AB (Review) //JDJ(Final) Emergency Response Declaration from September 25,2024 with essential staff list Emergency Preparation Declaration from September 24, 2024 NWS Jacksonville update from September 25, 2024 FDEM Tropical Update from September 25,2024 NWS Jacksonville update from September 26, 2024 //JDJ(Author) //AB (Review) //JDJ(Final) Y COuA, CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY , MEMORANDUM l��ivAUTp�` DATE: September 24, 2024 TO: Staff FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Dire f RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (Tropical Storm/Hurricane Helene) Our team continues to watch an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The NHC forecasts Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to strengthen into a major hurricane. The NHC forecast currently shows the storm moving near our area Thursday, September 26, 2024. I directed Darryl Muse, Chief Operations Officer, and his leadership team of General Superintendents to prepare for adverse tropical weather conditions under an Emergency Preparation Declaration. We remain engaged with Clay County Emergency Management regarding operational decisions. Our operational leadership will reach out to individuals normally off to ensure they maintain communications in case they are needed. We intend to make decisions regarding office operations shortly. I will communicate any Emergency Operations Declarations and/or office closures soon. Please continue to monitor the weather forecasts. Please keep your cell phones with you just in case. If you have questions or concerns,please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe. L���COUNT CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY • MEMORANDUM DATE: September 24, 2024 TO: Staff Sew FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Director%TO eV RE: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Helene Office Closure Our team continues to watch the development of Tropical Storm Helene. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts this storm to strengthening into a major hurricane and moving near our area Thursday, September 26, 2024. I directed Darryl Muse to prepare his teams for Emergency Response Operations beginning on Thursday morning. I am also directing the closure of CCUA offices on Thursday due to the adverse weather expected. I intend on issuing an Emergency Operations Declaration with further directions Wednesday, September 25, 2024. I will make decisions regarding CCUA office closure for Friday, September 27, 2024, as information on this storm develops. Please continue to monitor the weather forecasts. Please keep your cell phones with you just in case. If you have questions or concerns, please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe. m) CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY ri Emergency Preparations Declaration tot Atroo° Certificate of Executive Director I, Jeremy D. Johnston,Executive Director of the Clay County Utility Authority, on September 24, 2024, hereby certify that the action taken or approved as described below with supporting documentation is necessary to be taken forthwith by the Clay County Utility Authority, an Independent Special District of the State of lorida,to protec\the : . . 'c health, safety, or welfare. • 4gto 0, D. Johh on, si BA, PE uti - :' e • Emergency preparations for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine / Tropical Storm / Hurricane Helene Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine continues to approach Florida. We anticipate direct impacts to Clay County Utility Authority's (CCUA) service area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)predicts PTC Nine will develop into a major hurricane by 2 p.m.,Thursday,prior to making landfall (September 24, 2024, 5 a.m. update). Based upon the information above, I am activating Emergency Preparations beginning Tuesday, September 24, 2024. I am coordinating directly with Darryl Muse, Chief Operations Officer, for the execution of safe storm preparation duties. Melisa Blaney, Service Availability Manager, and Kasandra Ortiz, Communications and Public Relations Specialist, will serve as CCUA's representatives at the Clay County Emergency Operations Center (EOC). In addition to these emergency preparations, I will begin communications with each of the Board of Supervisors, so they are aware of these directions, preparations, and intended actions. gy1,1 c0tiA,4 CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY MEMORANDUM DATE: September 25, 2024 TO: Staff i FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Directo�'-`-i� RE: Hurricane Helene Emergency Operations and Office Closure Our team continues to watch the development of Hurricane Helene. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to forecast its move near our area Thursday, September 26, 2024. Based upon the most recent advisory information, we expect the onset of hurricane force winds to begin in the area Thursday morning. Forecast information also predicts two (2) to three (3) inches of rain. We also expect the storm to be moving out of the area late Thursday night/ early Friday morning. Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) for essential staff shall begin at 8:00 a.m. on Thursday, September 26, 2024. We are currently planning to maintain Emergency Response Operations through 12:00 a.m. (midnight). If weather conditions permit, we will move to Emergency Recovery Operations (Limited Emergency) from 12:00 a.m. through 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27, 2024. CCUA offices will be closed on Thursday, September 26, 2024. We are currently planning to resume normal operations at 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27,2024. We plan on the office being open for regular operations Friday morning. We will notify non-essential staff if the situation at the time warrants any changes. Please continue to monitor the weather forecasts and keep your cell phones with you just in case. If you have questions or concerns, please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe. r� CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY Emergency Response Declaration oP 4-ace Certificate of Executive Director _ I, JeremyD. Johnston, Executive Director of the ClayCountyUtilityAuthority, on Se tembe �4 I�r Y� P 2024, hereby certify that the action taken or approved as described below with supporting documentation is necessary to be taken forthwith by the Clay County Utility Authority, an Independent Special District of the State of Florida,to protect the c health, safety, or welfare. • icr my .lu stop, BA, PE 1 ' TU11\ 'tor Emergency Response Operations Hurricane Helene Hurricane Helene continues to approach Florida. We anticipate direct wind and rain impact to Clay County Utility Authority's (CCUA) service area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Hurricane Helene will continue development into a major hurricane prior to making landfall (Wednesday, September 25, 2024, 1:00 p.m. update). Hurricane Helene has a large wind field. We expect sustained winds in our service area based upon the latest information from the National Weather Service Jacksonville. The Clay County Emergency Management indicated in the 1:00 p.m.update sustained winds between 30 to 45 MPH and gusts between 50 and 60 MPH were likely. We also expect two (2) to three (3) inches of rain with this event. Clay County Emergency Management encouraged everyone to remain off the roads during the storm event. The wind and rain event will compound issues with already saturated soils from a large amount of rain in the last month. We expect toppling trees to create significant risk of damage for our pump station and pipeline infrastructure. In addition, rain bans will add to our existing issues with the amount of inflow from infiltration coming into our water reclamation facilities. Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) for essential staff shall begin at 8:00 a.m. on Thursday, September 26, 2024. We are currently planning to maintain Emergency Response Operations through 12:00 a.m. (midnight). If weather conditions permit, we will move to Emergency Recovery Operations(Limited Emergency) from 12:00 a.m. through 7:00 a.m. Friday, September 27, 2024. CCUA offices will be closed on Thursday, September 26, 2024. We are currently planning to resume normal operations at 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27,2024. We plan on the office being open for regular operations Friday morning. We will notify non-essential staff if the situation at the time warrants any changes. Melisa Blaney, Service Availability Manager, and Kasandra Ortiz, Communications and Public Relations Specialist, are coordinating with the Clay County Emergency Operations Center(EOC). Hurricane Helene Essential List Response Team: Name Department Shift Katie Trice IT B Matt Pence IT A Andrew Robertson IT (A-B) Alicia Baker Admin Both Janice Loudermilk D&C Both Heather Webber Environmental Both Diana Strickland CSPR Both David Rawlins D&C Both David McDonald WW Both Jason McLain W Both Melisa Blaney Engineering Both - EOC Kassandra Ortiz Admin Both - EOC Gary Church D&C A Steve Rencarge D&C A Tommy Eure D&C A Larry May D&C A Chad Leblanc D&C A Tyler Parks D&C A Stan Singleton D&C A Dillon Lucas D&C A Ian Larson D&C A Jacob Crosby D&C A Cliff Spry D&C A David Deese D&C A Daniel Legge D&C A Shawn McKinney D&C A Michael Echelberger D&C A Patrick Laniel D&C A Cross Middleton D&C A Wade Mathis D&C A Richard Saucier D&C B Ricky DeLoach D&C B Brian Long D&C B Chad Hartman D&C B Jonathan Dillon D&C B Levi Johns D&C B Danny Philemon D&C B Brian Thacker D&C B Carl Silcox D&C B Jerry Sleezer D&C B Matt Jeffers D&C B Paul Rosenbaum D&C B Thomas Finnegan D&C B Marvin Short D&C B Dalton Chesser D&C B Zachary Bombard D&C B McKade Middleton D&C B Dale Rodgers D&C B Brian Peeples W A Mike Rapp W A Nate Knepper W A Nick Griffin W A Kyle Morris W A Nic Jordan W A Cedric Bodaway W A Jonathan Stanley W A Chris Nazworth W B Bryan Nall W B Daniel Dawson W B Ben Hash W B Joe Dean W B Michael Murrhee W B Justin Raymer W B Corbin Bohanan W B Billy Loudermilk Facilities A C. Elvis Edgington Facilities A Zack Askew SCADA B Matt Crawford Facilities B Lindsey Esteves WW A Dylan Moore WW A John Fuquay WW A Jerry Ley WW A Carl Kight WW A Gregory Harris WW A Kyle Holzschuher WW A Shane Spicer WW A Michael Chapman WW A Jesse Hellard WW A Darin Ernst WW A Bradley Morgan WW A Austin Gahl WW B Tommy Riley WW B TJ McLendon WW B Bryce Adams WW B Curtis Copeland WW B Wes Bland WW B Chris Bryant WW B Evan McGauley WW B Nick Smith WW B Shane Jordan WW B Vincent Brown WW B Paul Stone WW B Recovery Lindsey Estevez WW Cedric Bodaway W Marc McMahon D&C Jesse Saunders D&C Kyle Switzer D&C Emanuel Bertie D&C Jack Marsh D&C Randy Green D&C Daryl Roberts D&C Kenny Sweat D&C fCOU^,T CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY MEMORANDUM DATE: September 26, 2024 TO: Staff 416011" FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Direct() .aol RE: Hurricane Helene Emergency Operations Update Our team remains in Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) as Hurricane Helene approaches landfall in Florida. We began to experience wind and rain from the event around 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, September 26, 2024. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts landfall in the Big Bend of Florida around 12:00 a.m. Based upon the current forward speed of the hurricane at 23 MPH, we expect the storm to begin clearing the area sometime between 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27, 2024. With the latest information from both the NHC and the National Weather Service, Jacksonville, will remain in Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) through 7:00 a.m. on Friday. We plan on evaluating the conditions and forecast to evaluate options regarding a stand-down from Emergency Response Operations and resumption of normal business operations at 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27, 2024. We will communicate those decisions around midnight tonight. Please continue to monitor the weather forecasts and keep your cell phones with you just in case. If you have questions or concerns, please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe. ( NCY to FLORIDA �— Iti Tropical Up ORiimaiii517) _��' �0 EiC�°FtHEG� � 1 : 30 PM EDT Wednesday, September 25 , 2024 Helene Becomes a Hurricane & Florida Outlook Hurricane Warnings For Florida Big Bend and Gulf Coast; Tropical Storm Warnings Through the Peninsula and Keys ; Impacts Well Beyond the Center This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office, or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov. taRGENevittN.1* Helene ,.._ i-kpH 1 1 :00 AM EDT Wednesda : Florida Threats & Changes Since Last Packet ' Or Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show J 4,, ., MINIMAL Low MODERATE HIGH EXTREME ( 110 the size of the storm.Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. = ta 40N -M i at 4. cm •CO iil lJ lJ U V✓� KS MOB, Iv o N 35N OK _ AR — A_ MVri �1 ft.%\ii RAGE '� [MS AL J i ,isk . .e.1. � FLASH rL�f1� � 30N7) `�-r� M 'MTh u "1 n r FL S 7 AM Thu n � -__7'Y--f:uhamas Madeo f "� ,igLit IA_ A D CIES , Illie_. � ., �_.__ it Jamalc-, 10 APB-,_95W ,i.7851/1( 80W 75W 70W 65W . Low MODERATE HIGH Hurricane Helene Current information: x Forecast positions: Wednesday September 25,2024 Center location 21.6 N 86.3 W .Tropical Cyclone 0 Post/Potential TC 10 AM CDT Advisory 9 Maximum sustained wind 80 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph �_p r D D NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NNW at 10 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M>110 mph G JUl� Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: C H Day 1-3 CI )ay 4-5 ,ur cane Trop Stm MHurricane Trop Stm � ^,Hurricanc Trop 51 J FOUO ' or Govern ah ent Official Use Only Overview/Recent Changes: As of 11:00 AM EDT, Hurricane Helene is located about 85 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico and about 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida and moving north-northwestward at 10 mph. A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow for strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern U.S., including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended along the Florida Gulf Coast to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass. ( RGINC.. ....1. Hurricane Helene °R,'FaF iv, G ' From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) • Location: 85 miles NNE of Cozumel, Mexico; 500 miles SSW of Tampa, Florida 1 Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show ,; ",. the size of the storm. Hazardous condi ions can occur outside of the cone. IiiriP • Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph; Category 1 IA ) Current Movement: NNW at 10 mph 40N L 7 AM Sat or+ ) PA 1 '..' co 7 PM Fri A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is KS MO T �. WV �'-r_ KY VA expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the -Go - eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening. After 35N NM OK • AR N r 7-AMI'Fri I landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the '-� SC -/ southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected to be a MS I AL A major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. LA •., LT, ' Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, 30N , #-, . M 7 PM Thu 1 damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern U.S. ry GOES-16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature(C)at 15:12Z Sep 25,2024 • QC�Thu`fl �"�, y `•, k ,r ` 4 . ' ' „ zip. . .. ., , ;Ai r, ..i • .A , ,,,,:i , - x wed, ,;•' �� Air Force Reserve and NOAP4 a . it ' #"4111)11r. . 20N ` — xl°° - '— Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been + ? • wait °m;n1 investigating Helene, and have founds ', ' ,1 - _ -r ems' - f Pr g g , rilial 105W poo r ._` 95W sow .' s5W 80W 75W low 6 y, ''•> winds of category 1 strength..• _ -'° Additional radar data from Mexicot. li, Hurricane Helene Current information: x Forecast positions: and Cuba as well as reconnaissance • Wednesday September 25,2024 Center location 21.6 N 86.3 W •Tropical Cyclone Q Post/Potential TC , 7, +� 10 AM CDT Advisory 9 Maximum sustained wind 80 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph reports, indicates Helene has formed, - 7:' ) • NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NNW at 10 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M>110 mph - (� �� p p p p a partial eyewall that is open on the ^, f -`� .9''� , Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate:east side. _, Day 1-5 Hjrricane Trop Stm Hurricane MTrop Stm MHurricane Trop Srn �'+ I ", -1•A ' AIM FOUO — For Government Official Use Only WO "° �" DPW 0 " aw a „v OEMEpGENfY�a� sCurrent \°�kpofEGo�o°. As of 11 :00 PM EDT Wednesday k..5-Apla posso...aoa. � : - • Hurricane Warning: Farc'enB CL�7.1i , O:� ^rc3,L Fa Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Hamilton, Suwannee, saaacoxo Lafayette, Columbia, Gilchrist, Dixie, western Alachua, Levy, western Marion, coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Mtaln Pasco Tropical Storm Warning: Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Baker, Nassau, Duval, EB Union, Bradford, Clay, St. Johns, eastern Alachua, Putnam, �. =El QM Flagler, eastern Marion, Volusia, inland Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Seminole, Brevard, Orange, inland Hernando, inland Pasco, ° 'aesara Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Indian River, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Glades, DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte, Palm Beach, Hendry, Lee, sir °raBacEo cm= Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe Mexico • Hurricane Watches: Inland Citrus, inland Hernando, inland Pasco, Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, coastal Manatee, coastal Sarasota FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ( GI N � e essa es* kNFTHE GO" From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) v Key Messages for Hurricane Helene i Advisory 9: 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 25, 2024 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northeastern C w n.r portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are x„N ,.„s. occurring over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning '°M'^ area,and hurricane conditions are possible today within the Hurricane - Watch area. ,a„ , o` "'"` ; 2. Due to the large size of Helene,there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and 70N � y Thu Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation of greater than 10 ft is /" r / expected along the Florida Big Bend coast. Residents in those areas f Twn..r.l0/ should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do o so. r---,di.w.a` 3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of . .- - •4' northern Florida and southern Georgia where the core of Helene moves Hurricane Wens a«a�,unrolmNioe:II FORME positions: inland. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by ,aMl COT gpiY %U....-....-..,...bx.& s,„..e.... a.,..d, early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin vskis.w Hombre Gesso """'^"...1 ID,. ",',N.xD,',D nw& within these areas on Thursday- Because of Helene's expected fast "akin""Ina arm welch..: '"'"kips' penei.eA Mole ne.rki forward speed.damaging and life-threatening wind gusts,are expected to CCbs f�...�.bki � .. penetrate well inland over portions of the southeastern United States. p 4 Pe.kstor i Surge Firmest - including in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. --MN= 4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern r., Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.Considerable and potentially life- _ threatening flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of ,,,:,.;, northwestern and northern Florida,the Southeast.southern Appalachians, , and the Upper Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday.This includes "" the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians.Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely,and isolated major river flooding "` is possible. ._., . \111 vw xa wsi▪ SOT� ora ,..wpm,.NY.9br u.vs gym n.o.. as. o...rw For more information go to hurricanes.gov FOUO — For Government Official Use Only o`' 1 i i i). a Th �TIN� Threats & Impacts F ro m the National Weather Service Storm Surge Wind Flooding Tornadoes . . r s it ;. �r_��.,��,' �', : iiii�• ksonville ,`s I �cksonville warm&, t .. t -► 'p"A ` V *� ?? ,; S � cksonvilie'- - el Vi ` `_ •iiii �cksonville itw.., lie w4pi , ,, al. • A l: ' ,,i 0 •_II O 'n 7 t ili r Ft, . 1 itL.ar � IP. v II pi , s. ii, .i_. =,t- g- _, • 1 '- I --'lli‘glii\ n V, Miami Gu , l f V .1___,4. I A4 Rr_y-_ . am' l., iliamiI • i.,1 ` .)i r __ma�yy �l. . 1111 1�I... s • y- Straits of - Widespread deep inundation,with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering - Structural damage to sturdy buildings,some with Major rainfall flooding may prompt many - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction evacuations and rescues. the execution of emergency plans during tropical waves. Structural damage to buildings,with many of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their washingaway. Damage greatlycompounded from events. g p large airborne projectiles. Locations may be banks in multiple places.Small streams,creeks, - Several places may experience tornado damage considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood uninhabitable for an extended period. Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with control systems and barriers may become stressed. with a few spots of considerable damage, power - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roa fences and roadway signs blown over. - Flood waters can enter many structures within loss,and communications failures. - washed out or severely flooded. Flood control Many roads impassable from large debris, and more multiple communities,some structures becoming Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, systems and barriers may become stressed. within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where mobile homes demolished,boxcars overturned, - Extreme beach erosion.New shoreline cuts causeways, and access routes impassable. flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and large trees snapped or uprooted,vehicles tumbled, possible.ii, Widespread power and communications outages. parking lots become rivers of moving water with and small boats tossed about. Dangerous Massive damage to marinas,docks, boardwalks, underpasses submerged. Driving conditions projectiles can add to the toll. and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. with some weakened or washed out. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ti,„,.. „EN TropicalWind OF EC' Hurricane Helene As Hurricane Helene moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm-force conditions are likely to arrive along the Florida Keys and South Florida overnight Wednesday and into the early pre-dawn hours. The 6 Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds F-0 forecast quick forward motion of Helene will allow for deteriorating conditions quickly. During the predawn hours and into the morning on Thursday, tropical storm-force winds will mostly likely arrive along the West- toow 95w 90W 85W sow 75W low Central and western 1-4 corridor. Deteriorating conditions and the quick forward motion will allow for tropical storm-force winds to most likely arrive across the Florida Big Bend during the afternoon and early evening •-fr"j hours,then extend towards the 1-10 corridor into the evening hours. - 7 -. Le'- However, tropical-storm force conditions may begin as early as Wednesday evening along the Southwest OK 5N Florida coast and through South Florida overnight . Along the West-Central and Nature Coast, as well as the Q y western Peninsula, tropical storm-force winds could begin as early as overnight Thursday and into the % predawn hours.The Florida Big Bend could see tropical storm-force winds as early as Thursday morning. WS Wind speed probabilities will likely continue to increase in future packets as the eventual forecast track and TX ) . intensity forecast become realized. LA City Tropical Storm-Force t30N Wind Probability 'Nj"---\\s , piI-7 a� Key West 35% (+8% 2 am IV Y 1 Naples 45% (+5%) _ a 8 Pmr ,",. ey Miami 7% (+/-0) ' @cr 2 pm.,� , A o "�"'� Fort Myers 34% (+10%) fACkICO , 1 `, .�` - 1l Tampa 73% (+ T , r ti.� Cedar Key 86% (+5%) — ci -., \ _;:- '• Cocoa Beach 30% (+4%)- Mexico ',,- w ;' ° o Orlando 27% (+9/o) a R u Gainesville 66% (+1 �� All Times CDT t -- - Tallahassee 95% (+9%) Hurricane Helene Storm Location O<34 kt(39 mph) 5-day chance of receiving sustained 34+kt(39+mph)winds Wed.Sep.25,2024 10 am CDT & § 34-63 kt(39-73 mph) I _Li_L_I___11.111111111 Jacksonville 42% (+13%) Advisory 9 Wind Speed 4 z 64 kt(74 mph) 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Apalachicola 95% (+4%) Panama City 83% (+8%) FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Pensacola 21% (+10%) EMgµ6.c.. t 1° Hurricane- Force Wind Probabilities 1* `pOptuE Gel Hurricane Helene The additional strengthening and intensification of Hurricane Hurricane-Force Wind Speed Probabilities 4E�I//f Helene will allow for hurricane-force winds throughout the W. For the 120 hours(5.00 days)from 7 AM CDT WED SEP 25 to 7 AM CDT MON SEP 30 '� Florida Bigextendingalong Bend and the Panhandle as well as "h AR . • ,-�. Nature Coast and along the West-Central Florida coast. )— -41It I' SC Y ` Wind speed probabilities will likely continue to increase in future 1 Ms I AL GA packets as the eventual forecast track and intensity forecast LA W become realized. sQN -/- -- FL' iK 4 CityStrong Tropical Storm- Force Wind Probability ' I 25N r- ., , , , 2% Tampa / - Cedar Key 13% 1 J; �� Cuba '`_, 3J- ,, -- -���' -- �' �` i '", St. Marks 43% 20N r in — * ' Apalachicola 64% " nui?Dominic <,, 471 O RCpu ,-- 1 �a""'`�-L Panama City 33% 100W 95W 90W '' 85W 80W 75W Probability of hurricane-force winds(1-minute average>=74 mph)from all tropical cyclones Tallahassee 37% 0 indicates Hurricane Helene center location at 7 AM CDT WED SEP 25,2024(Forecast.Advisory#9) 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 % FOUO — For Government Official Use Only oNERGENC SI 6.*1 CU Surge Watch °R As of 11 :00 AM EDT Wednesday ,r„E�o� � `" Peak Storm Surge Forecast `,„ Based on the forecast size, forward motion and intensity 9 �south Santee River „• y I � Up Up bto11r11 12*n • of Tropical Storm Helene, peak storm surge of 10-15' is Feet above ground level • possible for much of the Florida Big Bend and extending towards the northern Nature Coast. Throughout the rest 1-3 ft ' of the Big Bend from Indian Pass to the Anclote River, storm surge of 6-10' is possible. Across the West-Central - - —_. Florida Coast, including Tampa Bay, storm 5r,..•a_ _. 4-8' is Mexico Beacli a Car.b possible, with L-a Nuasiuie awrin surgi along the 2 4 ft g '' /vo Flaglerlusla Indian 6-10 ft • Cngler/Vomity Southwest Florida Coast. Storm surge values were Pass 10-15 ft Cllassabowitzka. :,, upgraded to along Mexico Beach to Indian Pass. 1-3' Tallahassee 6-10 ft .-- peak storm surge is now forecast along the Northeast Jacksonville i AncloteRiver• g Coast from the Florida-Georgia line southward to the c-, 5-8 ft -'Bay5p8 ft �� Flagler/Volusia County Line. lie of Longboat Ke+ `- Orlando 4-7 ft • Charlotte - - Eno-wood -5'ft = - - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the entire (a.-pa A ll Florida Big Bend and West Coast through Southwest 3-5 ft ` Florida. A rnrm Surge Watch is in effect from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass. Dry Flamingo •' Miami Tortugas...1-3 ft - Florida - - -- IP Keys...1-3 ft Hurricane HeleneI User Notes:Water levels along the immediate coast could reach the following heights above Wednesday September 25, 2024 11 AM EDT Advisory 9 ground level within the indicated areas. Elevated water levels will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves.Colors are determined by the highest values in the associated forecast peak surge range.Values shown on this graphic are inclusive of tide. 0 U 0 — For Government Official Use Only NWS National Hurricane Center ��O jRGINcRip - Today �,E GG From the National Weather Service (NWS) I 0 1 an Valdosta Onshore winds and increasing surf will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents Pensacola Tallahassee Jacksonville along the Florida East Coast. Numerous beaches along the Panhandle can be expect a moderate to high risk rip currents as hazardous conditions will continue to develop Gainesville over the next couple of days as Hurricane Helene moves into the eastern Gulf of Palm Coast 4t)_ Mexico. By later today, an elevated risk for rip currents can be expected to extend along the entire Gulf Coast. A high risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide later today through the latter portions of the week. Tampa Lakeland Ctlando Melb me Palm B - St Aaetersbu rg n, Y Port StL ie FL Panhandle Today Thu Fri Sat Sun "4 West Palm kapeCoral Beach 0 Rip Current 1 I �'� Coral B Raton o�pnngs 0 Marine Hazard Miami ( Rainfall T Next 7 Days F12 °f'Cf or TM E GOVEPr From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC 7-Day Precipitation(in) Ending Wednesday,Oct.2,2024 at 8 a.m.EDT !nit:Wed 2024-09-2512z WPC - South Florida and the Keys have begun to feel the outer influences of Mobile Hurricane Helene as the system pushes northward across the �` . °East Pen Oa Heeights ' Tai ahassee northwestern Caribbean Sea and pulls deep tropical moisture i- -S 7_0.. -__� Jacksonville �y� ; �� -*Panama city �,. 2.s _ northward. A few outer bands from Helene will likely move across • '34-' South and South-Central Florida and the Keys today with breaks of OPT sunshine in between. °�Vo"aAs Helene moves through the northwestern Caribbean and towards the 2.3.. -` southern Gulf of Mexico, tropical moisture will push northward through Orlando +� the state today and Thursday. .s y Pa ` - Increasing rain chances can be expected along to increase from south -43" ,` to north along the Peninsula, then extend into northeastern Gulf of 0 Mexico. 6 0" _•\1:' Vr to I ilk ' - i - - Rainfall totals heavily tied to the eventual track and forward speed of Palm the system. With computer model guidance uncertainty regarding the Cr �4 g �, E"`Z?'.a exact track, there remains uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall can be expected. Mii iii . 2.6' - Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" can be expected across the state through the next 7 days, with locally higher totals upwards of 6-10" �� along the Panhandle and immediate Gulf Coast. Localized instances 7-Day Forecast Rainfall Totals — upwards of 12-15" cannot be ruled out along portions of the western Through TuesdayNight coastal Big Bend. g g � � � �:: i'v�tal v�eather 0.01 0.05 0.1 02 03 0.3 05 0.6 07 08 09 I I I J I 1 8 2 - - 6 11 I FOUO — For Government Official Use Only "mosFlood FC wo/ a From the National Weather Service (NWS) 'Cf OF THE GO�EPP (1-7= Flood Watches have been issued across much of North Florida, West-Central Florida, and South Florida as tropical downpours associated with Hurricane Helene could bring instances of localized flooding beginning today. w,.;N - Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which could lead to instances of localized flash flooding. - With recently saturated grounds and soils, additional heavy rainfall across low-lying/poor drainage areas could exacerbate the potential for localized flooding. 41, - As well, with elevated water levels along the coast and COI ol aH°l°° extending into rivers and creeks along the coast due to al,,:ooa storm surge, heavy rainfall over surrounding areas could m' slow the rate of heavy rainfall depositing into system and running off towards the gulf waters. This may also exacerbate potential flooding concerns. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only tEM£PGENC►(1 ---- Rainfall — 30 Days FC ). °f How Saturated Are Our Soils? _ 'Cf OF THE G�VEP� __.__ ..-- . 30-Day Rainfall Departures yor r. L 1*; 1.1"14.44144A - ------__L__ .' ,1 --- .1%1 ", i `1>' ■• ; r lie .i • , .ls1 , 1 . — — Coastal portions of the Panhandle and south of the 1-10 corridor are 5-8" above normal for ''t _ ' • ° rainfall from the last 30-days. This would RAINFALL Inches) Nir•V 1 ■ Greater than or equalto8 If. trl: increase the potential for onset flooding with ■ 5to8 F.ORIDA .r . . additional heavy rainfall over the region. ■ 4 to 5 r 's ' kb • * ` �� - Recent heavy rainfall over the Panhandle has ■ 3to4 e . • Bay ■ 2ta3 ,� '-41 '.' allow for rises within water levels but all rivers ■ 05t, - ' ti'.• -r��._ti s UCie creeks and waterways are currentlybelow -05t00.5 . ' ®l'g •' , . , ti •'' flood stage. - 3 •f •. Vest Palm Beach Ito-0_5 I.:-`7` 14 r. 1 -3to 2 1 ' . .:' ,„ - Interior portions of the Panhandle and Big 1 -4to-3 '' . ). ,. 3m, Bend have seen below normal rainfall totals of ■ -5to-4 '1 -�' t 2-4" over the last 30-days. ■ :.� y ■ -8 to-5 /\ • I ■ Less than-8 f ■ Missing data 4'4 FOUO — For Government Official Use Only (GENCEFl ash Floo ance FDE 'e°FrNEG°sfpa How Much Rain is Needed to Create Flash Flooding? nonn 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance .` � . ', . ,,„ �`• 6-hr Flash Flood Guidance Valid: 09/25/2024 @ 08:49 AM `• Valid: 09/25/2024 @ 08:49 AM ,,q 41. • ■wr'1M� 4 �1 wr - ' - Along the coastal Panhandle jai `ali -\-, '* M '"* suede : Ali * 11141,E A3 F _- r a�• • r and Big Bend and into the w�� *� C , h� ���,;� �il.nbmANN, 84 -�,x .goo interior Suwannee Valley, it } � `` `"� * would take 3-4" within an hours r �r�� j Cti 7- t400 sRife ,rt )3»rig a� ,� ■ f ,�� , � All wit r' .._A,.0t;•;t., :.'4 or 4-6" within 6 hours to cause th-r! 0.-1.' cr, .�. '_' �#� +' fi.'` flash floodingwith some of the S•W `2 i Imo'1��•��yl i alreadysaturated grounds and �*trail ll * ■rr ', 1 x0 f _S• SOIIS. .. �. " F i3:'• •s. w ,-311.•. Is` T;'e Inches �, T "" ' '. 'F i Inches >_ ° _ .y1ti 4K- >= 0 >= o.z5 d ` Itiw�;k�`, >= 0.25 - Similarly, along the western t '= 0 5 '_ °5 Peninsula and, it would take >= 1 t�. >= 1 , >= 1.5 + = �= 15 about 3-4" within an hour or 4- Inches of rainfall required toproduce fla'`ll it >= 2 'nr:..};q q Inches of rainfall required to produce fla >= 2 >= 2.5 flooding. Lower amounts may cause flash` �_ 3'S flooding. Lower amounts may cause flash 1 6" within 6 hours. �l ->= 3 flooding in urban or mountainous areas % U1 >= 3.5 flooding in urban or mountainous areas ?- *7 >= 3.5 �. >= 4 I� . I, >= 4 >= 4.5 °� >= 4.5 / - >= 5 � -. >= 5 ->= 5.5 `>= 5.5 >= 6 >= 6 ' >= 6.5 >= 6.5 - >= 7 - >= 7 Created at 08:49 AM on 09/25/24 >= 8 Created at 08:49 AM on 09/25/24 >= 8 by the Southeast River Forecast Cent r n *. by the Southeast River Forecast Cent&r - . FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Fl („RGENcv,„,„ ash Flood \*�poPTMEG0 ?* From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) •Tuscaloos. 1 / / �\ �— ,.. T ` A , J t—•—raa- --a Highlighted Area: Day2 Highlighted Area: \ Day3 Highlighted Area: 'Tllsealoe - (�/ Day4 3 Flonde AL Issued Time:2024-09-2419:49:00 3 Florida 'Chad Issued Time:2024-09-2419:69:00 3 Florida ;AL Issued Time:2024-09-2418:59:00 Wednesday f. Valid Time:12Z 09/25/24-12Z 0926/24 _ Thursday Valid Time:12Z 0926124-12Z 09/27/24 •Selma Friday Valid Time.-12Z 092]124-12Z 09/28124 / ...any i/ // °Albany •Dou.la -/ °Albany OAF / f•Ha lesburg •Erve nrtce 1. l•Flemsbur. •En'.%nnha 1 'Hattiesburg �n"r.nr Dothan •Brunswtc n Do at � , Mo runswick runswrc, than Mbbde.Y l�1�! •Waldost - R •-- - ' •Waldost -. - ,B ��M■ /b�e•P _ 'Mobile 1 t 'e •:r4do9a 'Gul go,_# 'Pensacol - pGul p ,- Pensacol.G. got .y,' co Y '��.�+1� - •s.iecr awn �� •s •• ' � �'Galnesvill ••L'Y T�`thuit� .1n- ill- iii 'II' .l0VVIa `._/6MS iDaJl900/CL�ffi Of t ;•.Ba,"tTF.l110itril ii,' 1 v.i Vntusvlu- �� RI m- 1FLL 'vn I. �r •Klssimme- •_- •Klssrmme- --'�Qd •Im Taliv lf! I r I�, !:I Tamp. omlw . .Sarasota ' Fo t�Y : N. 'West `'' 'Wes t9�Hlf ; �� ' es tGF711u `' [Ft.My r Igfu.'Myers •Ft t,M_erg Probablliry or excessive rainfall , Probablliry of excessive rainfall �] - ProbabillTy of excessive rainfall •Maples \• o t14P, leading to rapid onset flooding.• 'NAP r�• g'Ram leading to p'id onset flooding.• ''Nap_ es _-•Fo i lera g to rapid onsel flooding.• •Miami High Risk At leas1m0% •Miami High Risk At least 7096 J7� •Miami High Risk At least low Moderate Risk At least 40% Moderate Risk At least 0.6 Motlerate Risk A[least 00% A- , Slight Risk At least 1596 L. J Slight Risk At least1596 Slight Risk At least 1596 Q�,,� r� , 0,_„Marginal Risk At least 5% 'AI •Within f a MYM1 representbcellretl 1 ♦ ,rr}Y% Moadi 0tAr verW�scus. , ® W. 'S -L MO dngt25mils oint. may nor represent [ 6) a t^7%ZMOI RMayn treoverW ers. .� ' The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a -• iht Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the southern Apalachicola River and towards the coast, with g/larginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories across the Florida Panhandle extending along the West Coast and through South Florida as outer rainbands from this No Area/Label MARGINAL SLIGHT MODERATE HIGH system will begin to bring heavy rainfall as Hurricane Helene moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As Hurricane (MRGL) (SLGT) (MDT) (HIGH) Helene approaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the Florida Big Bend on Thursday, tropical Flash floods are Isolated flash Scattered flash Numerous flash Widespread flash downpours can be expected nearly statewide due to the large size of this system. The Weather Prediction Center generally not floods possible floods possible floods likely floods expected expected. (WPC) is outlooking a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Florida Big Bend and extending Localized and Mainly localized.Most Numerous flash Severe,widespread into the eastern Florida Panhandle on Thursday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of , across the rest of the Panhandle primarily affecting vulnerable are urban flooding events with flash flooding.Areas places that can areas,roads,small significant events that don't normally and along the 1-75 corridor along the West Coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extends statewide on Thursday as experience rapid streams and washes. possible.Many experience flash runoff with heavy Isolated significant streams may flood, flooding,could.Lives hazards will likely extend well away from the center. Regardless, tropical downpours and multiple rounds of rainfall www.wpcncep.noaa.gov rainfall. flash floods possible. potentially affecting and property in d.NWSWPC may be possible that lead to instances of flash flooding as the system moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, largerarger rivers, greater danger. especially with potentially training showers and thunderstorms over the same areas and moving onshore. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding on Friday as well along West-Central and Southwest Florida. .„\ cip, q 3 „.gpGENCp oas al F l oo in on q.:. ) inues ,,p0F THE G0447 From the National Weather Service (NWS) 76, OLMES Valdosta i:;� SANTA m°( JAC"BON 0 54NTA RO1_,.1" '? jFaFr9leBlfse" O ws�NI� "•55 A Coastal Flood Warning are in effect along the Florida Keys until Thursday r" GADBDEN Tall h ee NgMILTON opens cola cALHOUN SON"'-` "4D1SON / sonvllle BAr 1. night as major saltwater flooding of 1-3' above normally dry ground is BERTT{RIWAK SUWANNEEP•'^'w possible, N nWAKULLA For at especially near and during times of high tide from Hurricane Helene. GULF k ufa_rETTE /]�BRIIOFONOGDAr FRANNLIM S � �_ _/ ST�.J• M6 J G))I,'.CNMiggT (;al VIII OIaIE {,� ��"NUA PUn o. alm Coast l/J( FLAGLER, `E" r Coastal Flood Warnings extend along the Florida Northeast Coast as saltwater MARIow� Fare t VOLUSIA arTRGs �W s,.�, flooding of 1-3' is possible, with locally higher totals upwards of 4' due to winds EUMLER .EMI"OLE - rom Hurricane Helene. HEPO '_ ID. p ,N��n BaEVAaD "AEC.) Melbourne �_- ... oLakela osceow �o n-u�"HILLEBOROUGH P°� calm Bay Due to compounding effects of lingering runoff from recent heavy rainfall, o St 7 1M0DIANw onshore flow, and recent high astronomical tides (King tides) courtesy of the MANATEE" "ARDEE "u P°rt St rR uN II recent Full Moon, minor coastal flooding can be expected along the St. Johns • 6�M60T_ DEEOTO 1-11 )I cH7Il / M°aT'" River through the middle of the week. A Coastal Flood Advisor remains in .OTTE—°TM woEs / -West Palm Beach Cape Coral o effect throughout the basin and along the Intracoastal Waterway and Atlantic LEE PALM BEACH ti_j— _,MEi DRLA. Sprinr� Coral5�o Coast. Raton 0 o Pompano _,u,1 of COLLIER BROWARD Beach Bla Cspre s ' National—` - Pre�rve Miami '`"°.ENANIDADE 0" Minor beach erosion cannot be ruled out at times near and during times of high MONROE E 6a PS�l Adal es J tide along the East Coast, especially for vulnerable beaches. 7P n Coastal Flood Warning • Coastal Flood Advisory ., .. r•o , F 5rr,iit FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ID „GENfY • iv rFlooding e rne �.tir THE GG4 Chance of River Flooding on Based Range of Forecast Rainfall g • Ta �,aase - - - P-i � L-. • -O ackson�ei llr ~. { Rivers, creeks/streams, and Gainesville p \ waterways across North Florida are co-F+ori, i " P already running above normal for this time of year. Computer forecast °0a�° models are indicating the potential r • Lakeland M��un- for minor 4^ moderate flooding St Aafsbu� almBry Based on rainfall o along several mainstems and modelling, •• • e. POSSIBLE river ® a ?ort• branches including the Apalachicola, crest levels ❑ Ochlockonee, Santa Fe, Myakka, oeCom' 1 Manatee, and Alafia by next week. Coral Springs _ MI Riverine flooding will be closely tied :'r00Rfl�' �`"'Nf4' National Weather Service ty o to which basin receives the greatest a e Peachtree City, GA Follow Us: E Chance of Exceedance swath of rainfall. Trends will continue O Q 'r,/ .,. 09/24/2024 11:43 AM EDT weather.gov/serfc 30 .10 _ Level 70% to be monitored. '‘,..) Action 0 Significant River Flooding Not - Expected Significant River Flooding . Possible Q Minor Flood 0 Weather conditions indicate,without certainty that significant river flooding could occur ^ Moderate Flood I Significant River Flooding Likely Significant River Flooding Major Flood Weather conditions Indicate that Occurring . signficant river flood conditions can be Significant river flooding is occurring expected at this time •= less than 3O% chance of reaching Action level FOUO — For Government Official Use Only EMgGGEN� . River Flood Warnings `kpNFTHE GGV�/ From the National Weather Service River Guage EU County(ies) Affecte0 Current Level • Crest Level 0 Record Leven Status • Crest Dan Warning Expire Alafia River at Riverview near US 301 Hillsborough Below: 2.58 ft Major. .00 6.60 ft Rising 26-Sep 0948 EDT 27-Sep St. Johns River at Astor Volusia, Lake Minor: 2.96 ft 11*• - . -• I 4.70 ft Steady 26-Sep Until Further Notice St. Mary's River near Macclenny Baker, Nassau Below: 5.30 ft Minor: 12.50 ft 24.40 ft Falling 27-Sep 0000 EDT 28-Sep A River Flood Warning remain in effect in the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels are holding steady within minor flood stagE just below the line for moderate flood stage due to trapped tides within the river basin. Water levels are forecast to rise back into moderate flood stage in the next few days in response to heavy rainfall across the basin and elevated tides and ocean swells preventing these waters from discharging. Additional forecast points along the St. Johns River are forecast to remain near or within Action Stage (bank-full) due to recent heavy rainfall over the area; however, river flooding is not anticipated at this time. Tidal portions of the lower St. Johns River could fluctuate in between Action and minor flood stage due tide fluctuations. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the Alafia River at Riverview near US 301 as major flooding is forecast due to tidal fluctuations and anticipated storm surge associated with Hurricane Helene. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the St. Mary's River near Macclenny as water levels are forecast to rise into minor flood stag, later this week. Additional River Flood Warnings will likely be issued later this week and this weekend as heavy rainfall expected from Hurricane Helene is observed across the state; however, Riverine flooding will be closely tied to which basin receives the greatest swath of rainfall. Trends will continue to be monitored. For more details, please visit the -(fiver rorecast center. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only t �{dGENt �� Tropical orna oes ',OF TryEGO'�t From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Bighlightad Area:Florida__. ' 1 1 r Last Updated:Sep 25 2024 0104 AM CDT rippi6pir ( Severe Weather Outlook Wednesday,September 25,2024 Valid Until:Sep 2620240]OOAMCDT - The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather -`1Pensa(la� Tallahassee-` k1° across much of the state today.��� Destin Y ;.�_ Panama City .ssii 1 Palm Coast ` Gain esville`� Daytona Beach OrlandoA Li A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weathei is icape Canaveral Tamp being outlooked on Thursday across the Northern elbourneN. Okeec ,Ft Pierce Peninsula south of the 1-4 corridor towards Lake Sarasota Ft M s° �Wes[PalmBeach Okeechobee. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extends 4\di Ft.Lauderdale "apIns e • from the Capital City through the Florida Keys. nov Miami � O,a Marathon I w • egnlignteda,a.Hand. t t �YLasUpdattil Sep 2720240700 AM CDT ed:Sep 2S20241252AMCDT Isolated tropical tornadoes are possible within J valid U : — r Severe Weather Outlook �ry..r�a`` Thursday, September 26,2024 - -=�•g• • outer bands of Hurricane Helene today and Thursday a..r.e.ran,.•t..r.. ,' as outer rainbands from Helene extend along the ��1 Pensacola Tallanaszee—{ °Jacksonville ), °t1"° y 1 Peninsula and Big Bend Coast. Panama Oty Palm Coast Gainesville° Daytona Beach Drlaed°° LapeCaeave. - The greatest tropical tornado threat will exist along Tampa Melbourne IL ne and to the east of the eventual path. Sarasota Okeechobee Fl pier„ 4t nl yers0 Wes[Palm Bll�� Naples Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued as • - 11 conditions warrant. M11ara[non 1 f noea ? Ice r57 Koh Pit, ,a4 F . C4]Moderate Risk ci 3_.Enhanced Risk 2 Slight Risk FOUO For Government Official Use Only 6'11 Marginal Risk �s„a«e.,a,urr�er �L�►\ Thunderstorms ( Tropical Outloo °'kkp,THE GG'" Disturbance 1 Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Invest 98L) p � VIV Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook .fftyE' A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located west of the Cabo Verde National Hurricane Center Miami,Florida Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental www.hu _ conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is Disturbance 1 � � �.k r, likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern M� , - I1` - and central tropical Atlantic. 1 �I aileir This system does not pose a threat to Florida through the next 7-10 days, at least. -Inur-roJ N . Chance of development through 48 hours... ou�sdhm...600%. \\ ,c ➢i '� '' Chance of development through 7 days... high...80%. . ,. _ ,, 25N GOES 16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature("C)at 12:25Z Sep 25,20)4 _ //' r '" /' '-,4! ,: I n �/ 15N IIiiIii J� )�, m F • �1�9 tiJt � ‘ 1 1 rr f 1 Y"' " o _4, . ;V 4fiVN&Ileit NI -Nig • • . r. MI gib > 1 .;, ,Dower 90W eoy«'" 70 , � v 40W 30W 20W _ n• " `- -30 Current Disturbances and Seven-Day Cyclone Formation Chance: i <40% 83 40-60% X >60% -Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone: 0 Depression 4 Storm 0 Hurricane 1 - ti0 Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants ' illir.Artor'' - - r �^ 5• t , 411 rr'4111,4 ,, •.: . :iik rfi. viLai.,-* ,, 4 IV: • . ..... 4 r 'N-Itt 0-'4 : ---. 7-t,k "-- 4.--,' - . •-F1 r.: . 'I: 48 Hour Formation 7 Day Formation • •• •w 40FOUO — For Government Official Use Onl tEMg6ENtY ro IcaWeatherOutlook,* * ,...� Disturbance 2 — Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest 99L) Q Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook .fftyE' A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several hundred miles to the northeast of National Hurricane Center Miami,Florida Bermuda. The system is currently producing winds up to storm force, and environmental Disturbance 2 - - - www.hu conditions could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next several days as ,,., the system moves generally eastward, remaining over the open waters of the central Subtropical '' 3,`l -- �"or Atlantic. 04 lirailiM / This system does not pose a threat to Florida. —11114!AMP-44p , Chance of development through 48 hours... Doowoo0V0%0 .IPA Chance of development through 7 days... Doea00020°Doo 'y>i, 25N GOES-16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature(°C)at 12:45Z Sep 25,2024 ,G 0PICALTIDB,T=`OM . `�. -. -- tJ 15N . ,, „;i-t om_t .1. 1° liglr } t — . . . ,-• . .' tit J � .. •, _,,,, 1- ..#_ . - 1 °nl hf r '> 1 5N • • 4._, 4 i mg @q)sEi:Q3 �IhU t00W 90W 80Vri 70 .A ._,Vy " a �{ -20 Current Disturbances and Seven-DayCyclone Formation Chance: tt <40% i 4 '4�-• ,. -y � 40-60% X >6094; Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone: 0 Depression 4 Storm 0 Hurricane t{E k •f - * e' -30 ® Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants ' II ;�-� l b • -tom^• � � 0 � , --.f • • F „h.. ,✓ 41? , IC:31-so tak ' L 0% ft 20 0© • II- .._ _ t J' ,... I - -10 lit 48 Hour Formation 7 Day Formation ` �" w- 9'''',) 1 If/l - .i•'�. ..-- ' ate..- -90 FOUO — For Government Official Use Onl 62°W 61°W 60°W 69°W 69°W 62°W Sfi°W 66°W 54"W 53"VJ 52"V4 MGEf► to U ni rn a r ofTMGG4 FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Tropical Storm Helene: • As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Helene is located about 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico and about 120 miles southwest of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwestward at 10 mph. • This general motion should continue through this morning, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday. • On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. • Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. • Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. • The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: • A broad area of low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. • Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system. • A tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. • There is a medium (50%) chance for development through the next 48 hours. There is a high (80%) chance for development through the next 7 days. • This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days at least. Central Subtropical Atlantic: • A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. • The system is currently producing winds up to storm force. • Environmental conditions could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next several days as the system generally moves eastward, remaining over the open waters of the central Subtropical Atlantic. • There is a low (10%) chance for development through 48 hours. There is a low (20%) chance for development through the next 7 days. The next briefing packet will be issued on Wednesday Evening. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. tMEFGEN(YM /o '1, f G FDE 'C Summary O F'CE OF TNEGOVEP�OP FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Florida Outlook: • Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the following counties: Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Hamilton, Suwannee, Lafayette, Columbia, Gilchrist, Dixie, western Alachua, Levy, western Marion, coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Pasco • Hurricane Watches have been issued for the following counties: Inland Citrus, inland Hernando, inland Pasco, Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, coastal Manatee, coastal Sarasota • Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the following counties: Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Baker, Nassau, Duval, Union, Bradford, Clay, St. Johns, eastern Alachua, Putnam, Flagler, eastern Marion, Volusia, inland Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Seminole, Brevard, Orange, inland Hernando, inland Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Indian River, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Glades, DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte, Palm Beach, Hendry, Lee, Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe • Hurricane Helene will be a significant multi-hazardous event, bringing the risk for life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, heavy rainfall, and isolated tropical tornadoes to the Florida Gulf Coast. • The large wind field and fast forward approach of this system will not only increase the threat of water above normally dry ground along the coastline, but also the inland extent of storm surge. • Storm surge values of 10-15' above normally dry ground will be possible from the Ochlockonee River through the Nature Coast, with 5-10' possible along to the central Florida Panhandle and north of Tampa Bay. • Even despite Helene's distance from Tampa Bay, the broad wind field will also be able to yield storm surge values of 5-8' during times of onshore flow. • A Storm Surge Warning extends along the entire Florida Big Bend and Gulf Coast from Indian Pass (Franklin/Gulf County-line) southward to Flamingo (Mainland Monroe) and including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. • A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass due to potential storm surge of 2-4'. • Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued along the Northeast Florida, as well as the Florida Keys, coast due to storm surge of 1-3' possible. • Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as this afternoon and into the early evening hours along the Florida Keys and the immediate Southwest Florida coast. • Deteriorating conditions can be expected, and tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as overnight across portions of West-Central and South Florida, then the Nature Coast and Big Bend Thursday morning. • Hurricane-force winds probabilities are likely to increase with the forward motion and rapid strengthening of Helene across the Florida Big Bend and extending along the Nature Coast towards West-Central Florida. • Helene affecting the eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and West Florida Coast could quickly cause trees and powerlines to become more susceptible to downing from gusty winds, especially given the vulnerability of local vegetation and infrastructure across these regions still recovering from Hurricane Debby. • Localized areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible for portions of North and West Florida and locations that experience intense rainfall rates will likely experience rapid onset flash flooding (Slight to Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding— level 2/3 of 4). • Flood Watches have been raised nearly statewide. • As with any tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be possible even prior to landfall particularly for areas to the east of the center of circulation later in the day today and into Thursday (Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather— level 1-2 of 5). The next briefing packet will be issued on Wednesday Evening. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. coGEq��N Ii0* 4H '��EMERBF * 0 C6j yiIORIDA rA tr Tropical Update ��R`�) ?fie fj'oNfF 1t►!0F TME Goya FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Created by : Kennedy Tartt, Assistant State Meteorologist Kennedy. Tarttem . myflorida . com State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topicid=SERTMetTropics. Other reports available for subscription are available at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?preferences=true Helene Weather Impacts & Messages 111 »> Hurricane Helene Forecast to Move Northward Into the Gulf of Mexico Today • Hurricane Warning in effect for the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA • Tropical Storm Warning in effect for rest of northeast FL and southeast GA • Outer rain bands begin This Afternoon & Evening, possible Tornado threat on Tonight & Thurs • Windy Conditions, Life-threatening Rip Currents, and Dangerous Marine Conditions on Today & Thurs • Moderate Tidal Flooding and Flash Flooding possible Thursday and Thursday Night >> High Rip Current Risk Through Friday at All Area Beaches >> Minor Flooding around High Tide for St. Johns River Basin through Wed Night NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE b� -�,,�� JACKSONVILLE, FL *.*.v ISSUED: Wednesday, September 25, 2024 10:35 AM HURRICANE HELENE Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show • 6; — the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. off'* Strong IA 40N . — 7'AM Sat ; 04 _Oki °" Winds co \ 7 PM Fri KS MO ' i -'.,r WV Ns_Ni„ti)�fJ KY VA .. Helene is forecast to strengthen , uo - 35N , OK AR N om+ 7:AM!'Fri _ into a Major Hurricane before 0 .- �_ ' „ �, landfall on Thursday evening. 12 Coastal s ,L ATx i i ' ) LA 30N r WI CO Flooding "^ 7 PM Thu Potential local impacts are N CO 7'AMTh0 - .'~Z expected Wednesday Night through = L • , dVe. Rah Jmss © .. . early Friday morning. CO4 Flash . --- X� 0r M Wed < . ■— la 20N \ w .. - �,-. - = Flooding `T--,._ 111 � . ,c c -- -- r� - p� Preparations should be completed CD 105W 10Q�N --_` 1� , 9 95iA0 '�Y!( 80W 75�W 70W 65W la Hurricane Helene Current information: x Forecast positions: today, be ready to hunker down O Wednesday September 25,2024 Center location 21.6 N 86.3 W Tropical Cyclone Co Post/Potential TCelm 10 AM CDT Advisory 9 Maximum sustained wind 80 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph and shelter in place. NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NNW at 10 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph Tornadoes Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: C_ __, Day 1-5 Hurricane Trop Stm IMIHurricane MTrop Stm NM Hurricane Trop Stm .,� °i.E9 NO MIL VEH��CE �, m NA110 °MAW AND A,1 ERICPE ,NST�,,oN Wednesday, September 25, 2024 �b� Noir��< JACKSONVILLE, FL 11 AM EDT Hurricane & Tropical Storm Warnings Hurricane Helene Key Messages /INN% - Flood Watch in effect for the entire area - Hurricane Warning in effect for Suwannee Valley & portions Hazards of inland SE GA Alma Jesup Hurricane Douglas - Tropical Storm Warning in effect for rest of NE FL & SE GA Warning - Worst conditions expected on Thursday and Thursday Night Tropical Storm Waycross Warning St. Impacts Hurricane Homerville $i Simons p . Watchvin IMO - Folkston Hurricane force winds expected in the Suwannee Valley Statenville ,� and portions of inland southeast GA Fernandina Beach - Tropical storm force winds expected for rest of N E FL and a for vv�. p p v N,, SE GA Live Jacksonville - Significant rainfall and potential for flash flooding Oak Lake Amy. 111 City - Minor to Moderate Flooding around times of High Tide Kingsley along the Atlantic Coast and within the St Johns River Saint Augustine Timing Gainesville Palm Welaka Coast Nikidisiov -, Local Impacts Wednesday Night through Friday Morning Ocala 4EArye ��� 9� NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE fJ,� JACKSONVILLE ti`':`',> ISSUED: Wednesday, September 25, 2024 10:35 AM Wind Potential 4, Tropical Storm Helene Potential Impacts of Strong Winds Hurricane force winds expected late Thursday afternoon through any Thursday night for locations along and west of the 1-75 corridor '); Val,.=ta Tropical Storm force winds are expected for the rest of northeast and north central FL, possible for the rest of southeast GA sonviII - Downed trees and powerlines, significant power outages and damage to aln, structures and mobile homes likely in the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA / Given saturated ground conditions, Tropical Storm force winds will cause trees to topple Potential for wind greater than 110 mph Periods of wind gusts over 40 mph expected on high profile bridges along Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph the 1-95 and 1-10 corridors on Thursday and Thursday Night Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph Wind less than 39 mph Last Updated: 9/25/2024 11 :34 AM National Weather Service — Jacksonville, FL ii#4SAT14. 1112i ■ Inland FloodingPotential Tropical Storm Helene Potential Impacts of Moderate to Major Flooding Rain: Albany Flood Watch in effect for all of southeast GA, northeast and north central FL 666 Initial outer rain bands will move across our area on This Afternoon and Evening 1 Val • to ` 1 Flash Flood Watch includes all of southeast GA, northeast and north central FL Tallahassee °"vine Potential rainfall totals through early Friday of 3 to 6 inches,with locally higher amounts possible 11 "''I`'"lv1ll~ aim Coast Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds will enhance the potential for flash, urban, and river flooding /AIM M. Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks. Small streams, creeks, � canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. .iI Driving conditions could become hazardous on Thursday and Thursday night with ,_,,, heavy rainfall and potentially flooded roads Potential for extreme flooding rain Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some Potential for major flooding rain structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away Potential for moderate flooding rain Potential for localized flooding rain Little to no potential for flooding rain Last Updated: 9/25/2024 11 :34 AM National Weather Service — Jacksonville, FL 2p741, Tidal -1E4_ 41 , . .. A Key Messages jor ---7 Minor to Moderate Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin j• f. st and Atlantic Coast Simons - Flooding likely to worsen on Thursday afternoon due to influence from Hurricane Helene Folkston i * -, Impacts include: tidal flooding of low-lying areas that includes * docks, boat ramps, parking lots and some roads Fernandina Beach Actions r Hazards — Never venture into floodwaters - find an alternate route 10 Jacksonville Coastal Flood sft Warning -> Secure vulnerable property lel ruar,ta1 FltAA Kingsley% Ativburr ' I , aint 4.„ , ;% Timing ustine -, Around times of high tide through at least Thursday Night Ile • PIm High Tide Times: https://www.weather.gov/jax/marineTides - . - -St �EAryF /Cala NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE b� -�,,�� JACKSONVILLE, FL *,*,v ISSUED: Wednesday, September 25, 2024 10:35 AM Helene Weather Impacts & Messages IP »> Hurricane Helene Continues To Strengthen As It Moves Northward Towards The FL Big Bend Today • Hurricane Warning for The Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Southeast GA • Tropical Storm Warning for the Rest of Northeast FL & Southeast GA • Tornado Threat Increases This Afternoon and Continues through Tonight • Windy Conditions, Life-threatening Rip Currents, and Dangerous Marine Conditions Through Friday Morning • Moderate Tidal Flooding and Flash Flooding Possible Today & Tonight • Lingering Tidal Flooding in the St. Johns River and Rough Surf Into Friday CEP IHF9 y �b4 � NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE %4 , *,� 7ACKSONVILLE, FL ISSUED: Thursday, September 26, 2024 10:57 AM Al2,1 , n, ..„...2,, ,,,IJ r Jacksonville FLJ Weather Forecast Office _�,� ` 11 AM Advisory Thursday Issued September 26, 202411:30 AM ET by` * `''� Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show +"`" NE FL & SE GA Key Points a.: the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. = IA / 1� ( MA 11E 4. ttiy NE ` _ _ i CT µ - Helene is expected to intensify and become PA i 40N 7.AMISat '" 4H - 'N a major hurricane later today before making KS MO ' ; 7-PM 1=riwv '.y landfall in the FL Big Bend region tonight. C' KY VA CO Helene is a very large hurricane, and impacts 35N OK 1 AR Fri y 7 PM C s�A (7 AM will extend far beyond the official forecast AL cone and are expected to affect NE FL and i_x SE GA through Friday Morning. © 'r Potential Hazards '�� Flash Deadly Rip 25N -10 A`Thu LE Currents and TMexico _ •�v Flooding Coastal " .- , i r 4 Strong to Flooding - mow V..!5W , 90W _ = 85W •-80W 75W .`r 7OW _0 Potentially Scattered Hurricane Helene Current information: x Forecast positions: Damaging Wind Thursday September 26. 2024 Center location 25.5 N 85.5 W •Tropical Cyclone Q Post/Potential TC Tornadoes 10 AM CDT Advisory 13 Maximum sustained wind 105 mph Sustained winds: D <39 mph 1 Gusts NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NNE at 14 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M > 110 mph Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: C -� Day 1-5 HJIrcric Trop Stm MHurricane MTrop Stm h Hurricane TropStm O Preparations should be completed! 0 NWS Jacksonville Visit hurricanes.gov and floridadisaster.org weather.gov/jax Hurricane & Tro Storm Warnings Hurricane Helene Key Messages - Hurricane Warning in effect along the 1-75 corridor, Suwannee Valley & portions of inland SE GA Hazards - Tropical Storm Warning Hurricane Alma in effect for rest of NE FL & SE Douglas Jesup Warning GATropical Storm Wind Potential Impacts Warning Waycross st. Simons 75 Homerville 95! -4 Hurricane force gusts along the 1-75 corridor and portions of inland SE GA, TS winds for the rest of NE FL and SE GA Folkston Statenville Fernandina Beach -4 Widespread downed trees and powerlines, significant power outages and damage to structures and mobile homes likely in Taylor the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland SE GA Live Jacksonville - Given saturatedgrounds, Tropical Storm force winds will Oak Lake City p� .,.,. cause trees to topple easily r75, Kingsley Saint Timing Augustine meiGainesville - Local Impacts continue through FridayMorningPalm p `"`tia Welaka Coast - Worst conditions expected this afternoon through $,. overnight Tonight - --`; Ocala ,EA Tye9 A n NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE limill - 1%..-�J t JACKSONVILLE ISSUED: Thursday, September 26, 2024 10:57 AM Tornado Watch Hurricane Helene Key Messages r - A threat for tornadoes embedded within a I It Helene's outer rainbands through the evening • �•� - Have many ways to get the tornado warnings! Hazards ' • l Tt rnx.k.) Watch Illt • tift .. t 1St. Potential Tornado Impacts 75 "1J• " - t Si 0 - Trees and Powerlines knocked down • ; tit - Power outages and damage to structures and ` " ' a g g mobile homes 'r■ S\ rn 1 - Structural Damage to Homes and vehicles • ---lo t �'4 nxz\ Timing 75 iii `� \ • i -, Tornado Watch for Marion County through 8 pm ,,_, V, -, Tornado Watch for all of SE GA and NE FL • �: t through 10 pm SEA Tye A 9, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ' �-�J t JACKSONVILLE ISSUED: Thursday, September 26, 2024 11:06 AM Flooding Rain Threat 0 Hurricane Helene Key Messages 5,vannah Flash Flood Watch for all of Northeast FL & Southeast GA .1 r Flood Potential Impacts -i - Heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding well inland gal to II - Potential rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher Tallahassee sonvilie v amounts possible .` - Rivers and tributaries may overflow their banks 1 - Driving conditions could become hazardous on Thursday and i - 'aim Coast Thursday night with heavy rainfall and potentially flooded , roads. ,; J, Ev-- Timing ,`, - Local Impacts continue through Friday Morning 1 Potential foextreme flooding rain L Potential for major flooding rain 1 �Eaty� Potential for moderate flooding rain 9 Potential for localized flooding rain z+ NATIONAL WEATH ER SERVICE Little to no potential for flooding rain --# JACKSONVI LLE * , ISSUED: Thursday, September 26, 2024 10:57 AM Tornado Threat 0 Hurricane Helene 'Po' KeyMessagesn -* Isolated to scattered tornadoes will be possible across NE FL and SE GA, especially for coastal SE GA -* Tornado Watch likely for our area on today and tonight yak],], ,t a Tornado Impacts 7 -onville -3 Areas may experience tornado damage, along with 7 power and communications disruptions ,rain, :ill, aim Co.i i N/i Timing-) Local Impacts through this Evening within outer rain bandsaiiiimmi Tornado Threat Potential for an outbreak of tornadoes Potential for many tornadoes Potential for several tornadoes �EATye* Potential for a few tornadoes -► N NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tornadoes not expected � ,':, , : JACKSONVI LLE ISSUED: Thursday, 26, 2024 10:57 AM 6'Y- ,r -�'� September Tidal Filei A a) 1_ 'r.,, P �■ •i' . AKey Messages . _ . -, Minor to Moderate Flooding within the St. Johns River Basincr and Atlantic Coast j' 'St. -, Peak Inundation of 1 -3 ft, locally 4 ft around times of high tide i Li. Simons -, Flooding likely to worsen on this afternoon due to influence • i7 a from Hurricane Helene Folkston �.. -, Impacts include: tidal flooding of low-lying areas that includes Fernandina Beach docks, boat ramps, parking lots and some roads �r Actions (j.0 Hazards Jacksonville coastal Flood ,.,.,,.,. ........ - Never venture into floodwaters — find an alternate route Warning - Secure vulnerable property r.1a�tair. w..1 Kingsley \ ;1,1k:fir/ I •aint 4,. .. Timing .\u:ustine I - Around times of high tide through at least tonight He i �•Im High Tide Times: https://www.weather.gov/jax/marineTides - - r ,• St �Earye / a e x`���• , NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE o f JACKSONVILLE, FL ati. * ,�' ISSUED: Thursday, September 26, 2024 10:57 AM fCOU^,T CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY MEMORANDUM DATE: September 26, 2024 TO: Staff 416011" FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Direct() .aol RE: Hurricane Helene Emergency Operations Update Our team remains in Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) as Hurricane Helene approaches landfall in Florida. We began to experience wind and rain from the event around 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, September 26, 2024. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts landfall in the Big Bend of Florida around 12:00 a.m. Based upon the current forward speed of the hurricane at 23 MPH, we expect the storm to begin clearing the area sometime between 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27, 2024. With the latest information from both the NHC and the National Weather Service, Jacksonville, will remain in Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) through 7:00 a.m. on Friday. We plan on evaluating the conditions and forecast to evaluate options regarding a stand-down from Emergency Response Operations and resumption of normal business operations at 7:00 a.m. on Friday, September 27, 2024. We will communicate those decisions around midnight tonight. Please continue to monitor the weather forecasts and keep your cell phones with you just in case. If you have questions or concerns, please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe. `J,c couNT CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY MEMORANDUM r�� • 11YAU7O1 DATE: September 27, 2024 TO: Staff \t � FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Direct .0 RE: Hurricane Helene Emergency Operations update and 7 a.m. stand-down Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida at roughly 11 p.m. Current forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) Jacksonville indicates the wind and rain will begin to taper off. The NWS forecast indicates a 26% chance of rain by 8 a.m. with winds decreasing below 20 mph. Based upon this information, I am directing our team to stand down from Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) at 7 a.m. I am also coordinating with our team normal business /office hours will resume after the stand down. The staff who worked Emergency Response Operations overnight are expected to take the appropriate rest and recovery time after the stand down to maintain safe operations per policy. Please monitor weather conditions in your vicinity. If weather conditions do not permit your safe return to the office, please notify your supervisor. Staff unable to return to the office for normal working hours at 8 a.m. due to weather may use their Personal Time Off(PTO)or, if eligible,work remote. If you have questions or concerns, please coordinate with your supervisors. Stay Safe.