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Home My WebLink About09.a EDB Hurricane Milton Emerg Action Ratification EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AGENDA ITEM: Requested Ratification of Emergency Declaration for Emergency Preparations and Response Operations (Limited and System Emergency) for Hurricane Milton Date: October 10, 2024 BACKGROUND: Hurricane Milton developed quickly in the Gulf of Mexico making landfall at Siesta Key, Florida about 8:00 p.m. on Wednesday, October 9, 2024. As Executive Director, I initiated emergency preparations, response, and limited emergency operations in response to the evolving information regarding the potential impact of a significant storm event on the Clay County Utility Authority (CCUA) service area. I respectfully request the Board of Supervisors ratify my Emergency Preparations, Response, and Limited Emergency Declarations and supporting actions. On October 9, 2024, the approach of the storm was slower than forecast requiring a Limited Emergency Declaration to ensure salaried staff who were working during the office closure to complete storm preparations as well as staffing the Clay County Emergency Operations Center (EOC)were compensated consistent with the emergency actions necessary. Based upon the undated information from Clay County EOC and the National Weather Service (NWS), I issued an Emergency Response Declaration to initiate Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) to mitigate and address the likely damage caused by Hurricane Milton. We began Emergency Response Operations on October 9, 2024, at 7:00 p.m. All CCUA teams were in place about one (1)hour before the adverse weather was forecast to move into the area. Hurricane Milton exited the North Florida area much quicker than forecasted on October 10,2024. When the NWS indicated improving weather conditions, I initiated Emergency Recovery Operations (Limited Emergency) to stand down from the Emergency Response Operations. The team began Emergency Recovery Operations at 8:00 a.m. Our team completed an assessment of CCUA's utility systems and reported no damage sustained. I directed to the team to resume normal business operation at noon on Thursday, October 10, 2024. I based my directions on continually developing information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS,the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Clay County Division of Emergency Management. I collaborated with the Senior Leadership Team members and operational leaders in the development of all our Emergency Preparation, Response, and Limited Emergency actions. I communicated information to CCUA staff through a progression of memos, emails, texts, and telephone calls. Our team remains in daily contact with FLA-Warn due to recovery operations form Hurricane Helene. We expect to receive requests for aid from utilities in Central Florida. We will bring requests for aid to the Board of Supervisors attention as we support disaster recovery efforts in the State of Florida. //JDJ(Author) //AB (Review) //JDJ(Final) Our team prepared for and performed Emergency Preparation,Response,and Limited Emergency Operations in accordance with CCUA's Hurricane Preparedness & Storm Recovery Manual,May 2024. I am incredibly proud of the entire CCUA team. REQUEST: I respectfully request the Board of Supervisors ratify my actions as Executive Director preparing for and responding to Hurricane Milton. ATTACHMENTS: Emergency Preparation Declaration from October 7, 2024 Emergency Response Declaration from October 9, 2024, with essential staff list Limited Emergency Declaration from October 9, 2024, with supporting memorandum FDEM Tropical Update from October 9, 2024 NWS Jacksonville update from October 9, 2024 Limited Emergency Declaration and Stand Down from Emergency Operations from October 10, 2024 //JDJ(Author) //AB (Review) //JDJ(Final) `J,,v couNT` CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY (. t fi Emergency Response Declaration 44'AUTO* Certificate of Executive Director I, Jeremy D. Johnston, Executive Director of the Clay County Utility Authority, on October 9, 2024, hereby certify that the action taken or approved as described below with supporting documentation is necessary to be taken forthwith by the Clay County Utility Authority, an Independent Special District of the State of F orida,to .rote lic health, safety, or welfare. • 4ddife nston MBA, PE ecutive • - Emergency Response Operations Hurricane Milton Hurricane Milton developed into a Category 5 Hurricane. This storm will most likely strike Florida near Tampa sometime late Wednesday,October 9,to early Thursday,October 10,2024. Yesterday, October 7, 2024. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates Hurricane Milton will strike the Tampa area as a Category 3 storm event. The current forecast also indicates the storm will cross the entire State of Florida with hurricane force winds. Based upon the current forecast, we expect tropical storm force wind and rain to escalate at roughly 8 p.m. We expect impacts to CCUA's utility systems based upon the current forecast. I am directing essential staff to begin Emergency Response (System Emergency) on Wednesday, October 9, 2024, at 7 pm. Our Emergency Response Teams will be in place prior to onset of tropical storm force winds. I expect to remain in Emergency Response Operations through Thursday or potentially into Friday as Hurricane Milton passes through the State of Florida. Upon the improvement of weather conditions, I will follow-up with damage assessments, any Emergency Recovery Operations (Limited Emergency), and return to normal operations. IThu,Oct 102024 n •-wpoint('F) Temperature ('F; 80° 80° 70� ✓8 aka > ce' d4 62. 7V t 60° ' 60. 58' _— —�'—1F JV c 50° -- 55o 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm I 2am Sam 8am 11am 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm I 2am Sam Sam 113m Thu.Oct102024 Fri, •. Gusts ;mph; Surface Wind(mphf 50 50 40 40 38 39 40 39 37 38 38 a 39 30 r- - -_ -_ 31 30 LL .--71- - ''!A\ fir . a F 1 % 20 21 2t' 21 2 _ 2a �f jr 18 10 t4 -4 18 15 14 1510 0 0 2pm 5pm 8pm 11 pm I 2am Sam 8am 11 am 2pm Spun :. , 11• 2am Sam 8am !1 am Thu,Oct 10 2024 Relative Humidity(%) Precipitation Potential(%) Sky Cover i%) 1 a, 68'4 079E ° 65% 05'. '+ 100% 1-_ 40% 3 % 40% 20% '5'_ .4': 0% 0% 2pm 512m 8pm 11pm I 2am Sam 8am 11 am 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm I 2am Sam 8am 11am Thu,Oct 10 2024 I Fn, Oct 11 2024 Ra Ocr0 uiilllllljllllllllllliiiiiiii . . . . . . . iii tidy Chc sc, c 4 3I' III _ C' 12^ ^0 31.T Rar_ir.3J^ Rio . : s t_s— s— s_ s_ ts. — s— s_ s_ — ts. ts. ts. � . � . . s s_ s— t— t— ��ts. ts. 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm 2am Sam Sam 11 am 2pm Spun km 11pm 2am Sam Sam 11 am IThu.Oct 10 2024 Fr., Oct It 2024 Thunder OcnJ •c. JJdy Utly (arc G.+�; SIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII SCh. 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm I tam Sam Sam 11 am 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm I 2am Sam Sam 11 a m �,y cot,HT o CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY • MEMORANDUM uirke DATE: October 9, 2024 TO: Staff FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Directo Vol RE: Hurricane Milton Emergency Response Operations Hurricane Milton continue to progress toward Florida as a Category 4 Hurricane. This storm will strike Florida near Tampa sometime late Wednesday, October 9, to early Thursday, October 10, 2024. Based upon information from the National Weather Service(NWS),we can expect Tropical Storm force winds to move into the area around 8 p.m. this evening. We also expect the wind and rain event to continue through Thursday, October 10, and potentially into Friday, October 11, 2024. I am directing Essential Staff to begin Emergency Response Operations (System Emergency) beginning at 7 p.m., October 9, 2024. I expect all Essential Staff to be in place prior to the arrival of the tropical storm wind and rain. If you have any questions or concerns, please communicate with your supervisor. I will follow-up with further information as the storm passes through Florida. Stay safe! cc: file :P1/4•4§1.- 4 CO(/N)yCLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY ,c. Emergency Preparation 44PAUTWIs Limited Emergency Declaration Certificate of Executive Director I, Jeremy D. Johnston, Executive Director of the Clay County Utility Authority, on October 9, 2024, hereby certify that the action taken or approved as described below with supporting documentation is necessary to be taken forthwith by the Clay County Utility Authority, an Independent Special District of the State of F orida,to pro�tec \h• pu• ' health, safety, or welfare. ere, y •;1 stop, BA, PE • xe utive Dire Emergency Preparations /Limited Emergency Operations Hurricane Milton Hurricane Milton developed into a Category 5 Hurricane.This storm will most likely strike Florida near Tampa sometime early Thursday, October 10, 2024. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates Hurricane Milton will strike the Tampa area as a Category 3 storm event. The current forecast also indicates the storm will cross the entire State of Florida with hurricane force winds. The NHC forecast also reflects a later arrival of the tropical storm force winds in the CCUA service area than previously expected. Based upon the current forecast, we expect sustained tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. We expect impacts to CCUA's utility systems based upon the current forecast. Based upon my previous directions, CCUA offices are closed today, October 9, 2024. We do have Essential Staff working to complete final preparations as well as supporting the Clay County Emergency Operations Center (EOC). Anticipating the arrival of severe adverse weather from Hurricane Milton, I am declaring a Limited Emergency beginning 8 a.m. on October 9, 2024. I intend to use the Limited Emergency pay codes for all Essential Staff completing final preparations for the severe weather. I continue to work with our team evaluating the latest forecast information from the NHC and the Clay County EOC. I will follow this declaration with a formal Emergency Response (System Emergency) later today to direct the operations of Essential Staff in advance of the storm. f. CLAY COUNTY UTILITY AUTHORITY MEMORANDUM DATE: October 9, 2024 TO: Kimberly Richardson, Chief Human Resources Officer FROM: Jeremy D. Johnston, MBA, PE, Executive Direct. ak, " •I RE: Hurricane Milton Office Closure, Emergency Operations Preparations, Limited Emergency Declaration I need to follow-up with yesterday's memorandum regarding the Essential Staff completing final emergency preparations in advance of the arrival of Hurricane Milton. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center(NHC) indicates a later arrival of tropical storm winds and heavy rains than previously stated. I expected to move into Emergency Response (System Emergency) by midafternoon on October 9, 2024, based on the previous forecasts. Based upon the latest forecast, we expect to move into Emergency Response mode later tonight. In my previous memorandum, I indicated my intention to use the"After Hours" storm preparation category described in Hurricane Preparedness & Storm Recovery Manual Emergency Pay Policy (Section 3. 3.2 D. 5) i. a., Page 45) for all Essential Employees completing storm preparations on Wednesday, October 9, 2024, prior to the activation of the Emergency Response Team (System Emergency). Based upon the writing of the Emergency Pay Policy, I am not sure the use of the stated section covers salaried employees. We have several salaried employees working today completing storm preparation and coordination efforts prior to the arrival of Hurricane Milton while the office is closed. We also have employees representing CCUA at the Clay County EOC serving as the lead of Essential Service Function (ESF) 12. Given these activities and the intentions within the Emergency Pay Policy for compensation related Emergency(System and Limited)activities,I declared a Limited Emergency (Section 3. 3.2 D. 7) ii.) to ensure all Essential Staff are compensated appropriately for this time prior to the arrival of Hurricane Milton. I consider this memorandum clarifying our use of the Emergency Pay Policy while maintaining the underlying logic of the policy. This logic remains consistent with the policy in the fact the pay grades specifically exempted from additional compensation for emergency activities are E01-E05 as stated in Section 3. 3.2 D. 6)v. and Section 3. 3.2 D. 7) iii. cc: file Darryl Muse, Chief Operations Officer David Rawlins, General Superintendent Distribution and Collections, Assistant to the Chief Operations Officer David McDonald, General Superintendent Wastewater Treatment Jason McLain, General Superintendent Water Treatment Oi jj GENc. II S)-1o< ro ica a eY) O,aik fp�NSE r* 11 : 30 AM EDT Tuesday, October 8 , 2024 Major Hurricane Milton Preparations to Protect Life and Property, and To Be Ready for Long-Duration Power Outages Should Be Complete By Tonight; Today is the Last Full Day for Florida Residents; Milton To Be An Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Approaching West-Central Florida Coast Wednesday Night This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office, or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov. ,gRGENtt° i Major Milton * FDE , */ . ,,., _,o c cP/ 11 :00 AM EDT Tuesday: Florida Threats & Changes Since Last Packet [o©M©o pop itaw rnmarn Of'fieml Mn CAI GOES-16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature(°C)at 15:27Z Oct 08,2024 MINIMAL LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREME e� Y�' %r eo Q 1 -YIP .n. FLASH �, . y7 ,.., �.N -fie t ' `` �'� I_so WN iplirl ot..,k ,1:. .. ... . 1111 -60 -0l. ADOOE : ` f lir LOW MODERATE HIGH "'N ��,'"=':.��` 44Z I-80 -90 - 91•W 93 W 9I'W A cuRRENUS Satellite imagery as of 11:00 AM EDT Overview/Recent Changes: As of 11:00 AM EDT, Milton is located about 520 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and moving east-northeastward at 9 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the West-Central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across the central Florida through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Milton is forecast to retain Major Hurricane status and expand in size while it approaches the West Coast of Florida. Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-durations power outages, should be complete by tonight. Storm Surge Warnings have been extended southward along the Florida East Coast to Port Canaveral (Brevard County). FNCp Major HurricaneMilton (ç \i FDE O OP,/ \�,Cf.,---'''' From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) _ Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show +"'"f, v, the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. • Location: 520 miles SW of Tampa, Florida M° 4 l rr 4 r` • Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 mph, Category 4 �� A � p � g Y Sri • Current Movement: ENE at 9 mph 35N A NC r+ � _r SC gl F-- _ A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is Via] AL GA 1✓AM Fri LA t ; 1 PM Thu =ermsa expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. 30N 1 AM `�' © On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the r H 0 eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of I]GLiJWed G3 1 AM Sun Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall ''° along the west-central Florida Coast on Wednesday night and � 25N fv1 ° : �� move east-northeastward across central Florida through xi° 1 AM Wed -- � Thursday night. While Fluctuations in intensity are expected, 7AMTue 20N Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane ., -_ - ""' through landfall in Florida. r � RP�U6i ry p�T�Ico� 90W -, ,,85W 80W 75W 70W 65W ,.60W Hurricane Milton Current information: x Forecast positions: Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from Tuesday October 08,2024 Center location 22.5 N 88.8 W •Tropical Cyclone 0 Post/Potential TC 7 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory 13A Maximum sustained wind 145 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph their local emergency management officials, as Milton has NWS National Hurricane Center Movement ENE at 12 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: C , Day 1-5 Hurricane Trop Stm MHurncane INTrop Stm MHurricane Tr.;u SI 11 on record for West-Central Florida. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only a�+af 'ys/s Forecast Com uter Models — Next 5 Daysp FDEn *) Ma J or Hurricane Milton -tor THE GO°5' I Hurricane MILTON Model Track Guidance Recent aircraft data shows that Milton has trned a bit leftward and is moving east-northeastward. Milton is 50"N Initialized at 12z Oct 08 2024 Levi Cowan-tropicaltidbits.com forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between an upper-level ,, , �, r "-44- �, 1;"•t' J Do.,NO U HIs MAP disturbance and high pressure over the Greater Antilles. The track guidance is honed in on landfall along the e r r> To-MAKE�DECISIONS! ' �a - sEEK�oFFICIA� IN Fr west-central coast of Florida sometime Wednesday night; however, a reminder that even at 36-48 hours s' away, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 nautical miles. This 45°N ¢ .,�= Q ;' f _ �, , _ means an exact landfall location cannot be pinpointed, especially if the system wobbles as it approaches the ••o. coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to across Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. 4"`" r Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger upper-level winds are expected to set in about 24 hours, but HWFI CTCI even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from begin an extremely dangerous 35 N A "�' " " 120 hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway _ ��— '' •' RYOC as Milton is reaching the coast, which could slow the rate of weakening. 16s on � _ r 20 -�— _i F44 68 Hurricane MILTON Model Intensity Guidance 0°N-":•..j ' r �.i.•, 96�� t.4 Litt Initialized at 12z Oct 08 2024 Levi Cowan-tropicaltidbits.com 120 96 96 �.� 72 72 168 140-_Cat s96 „KX2 25`N- \ 120- \_ _�_`�� ` •�_, 100- cat • �� 20 N-I— ° 1\ '\_ 'F-- AE►Nt--- Y. cat 2 WM 5 o. '‘\*N‘ 15 N ts N• 31 60 C M \,i ,, k..\ 4 lei 10°N N ' . . -__," 11' 40- TS ..HP \ .4! AVNI :R 90°W 85°W 80°W 75°W 65°W 60°W 55°W 50°W 20- FOUO For Government Official Use Only 00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 Forecast Hour �,1{GENty�moo. Current * it ,\kCF THE GG� As of 11 .00 AM EDT Tuesday b..l rO M15 l Valdosta JACKSON O \/54NT4 g05JFaceB Hurricane Warning: St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, Volusia, Levy, ([ � �FOt CI@ B Ir wu.ew W46NIN4TON 4AGSOEN �!'{'T'i'�C' g , MI g..-rar.� °Pens cola c4u�ouN �• LI6ENT tCCl2 Marion, Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Seminole, Brevard, Orange, For ECIIM ^ WANV LL•A C21:11 en Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Indian River, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee Tropical Storm Warning: Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Jefferson, Taylor, Suwannee, Lafayette, Dixie, Gilchrist, Columbia, Alachua, Union, Bradford, Clay, Nassau, Duval, Clay, EIMEM Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Glades, Palm Beach, Hendry, OES4T4 Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe (Florida Keys & Dry Tortugas) MICCP I_ Guff °r Hurricane Watch- Nassau, Duval, Clay, Okeechobee, Glades, Mexico Hendry, Collier, Dry Tortugas Tropical Storm Watch: Inland Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ° fRGENCrDE Timingof Arrival Tropical Storm- Force Conditions F / 04.'0 F THE GO'''''' From the National Hurricane Center NHC ... Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds ! • Tropical storm-force conditions will most likely arrive along the West 90W 85W 80W 75W 70W 65W 60W Florida coastline Wednesday evening and spread eastward across 1/4 ,. ��/ the Florida Peninsula through the overnight and early mornings MO '"" ` ! ' hours on Thursday. KY Alai VA • Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as midday TN Wednesday along the western Florida Peninsula. "" I �i - • Probabilities (shaded) will continue to increase as Milton's landfall is i SC closer in the forecast period. MS AL GA T LA +' _"WM i s Location Probability Tn . . SG C ;313 3 Key West 28% (-12%) coo, 4 ] o _ o ted 0, d Naples 75/o ( 5/o) Wod 'd� ` Fort Myers 69% lie m Tue 49 3 Miami 17% (-2%) 3 3 , :t- West Palm 61% (+1°' ' Venice 96% (+/-0%) ra— Tampa i 93% (+/-0%) Orlando 77% (-1%) r ' All Times CDT Cocoa Beach 89°/ "-2 Hurricane Milton Storm Location O<34 kt(39 mph) 5-day chance of receiving sustained 34+kt(39+mph)winds Cedar Key 61% (-4%) h Tue. Oct. 8, 2024 10 am CDT & `�34-63 kt(39-73 mph) 11161-71-1-1—F7 IDaytona Beach 56% (-5%) Advisory 14 Wind Speed l264 kt(74 mph) 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Gainesville 32% (-9%) FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Jacksonville 22% (-3%) eit Hurricane- Force Wind Conditions q. �rift G From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane-Force Wind Speed Probabilities For the 120 hours(5.00 days)from 7 AM CDT TUE OCT 08 to 7 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 lippr. Probabilities will continue to increase as Milton's landfall is closer in the forecast period. MS AL Location Probability LA 4 - - -- 1 •. Key West ing% 30N • — Naples 10% .,� Fort Myers F Miami 0% West Palm 5N F Venice 52% Ta _ : - . I' m c:, Orlando 9% Cuba j4" !,,\ f� v - 0 • -., Cocoa Beach 29%-11 r ) `r. Cedar Key 12% �n 1.,,.1,u C� _ aiti 1 ona Be _mil_• �� - , L r - Gainesville 2% ! !95W 90W i- 85W 80W -� 75W Probability of hurricane-force winds(1-minute average >=74 mph)from all tropical cyclones Jacksonville 0% 0 indicates Hurricane Milton center location at 7 AM CDT TUE OCT 08,2024(Forecast Advisory#14) 1 I l 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0,0 FOUO — For Government Official Use Only at tERG[NCp * Key M NpFTNG�� From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) „Act\ Key Messages for Hurricane Milton i► Advisory 14: 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 08, 2024 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening c E v T . -TI I14. _j; i{, t ,441 e1 storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula PM7,e, "" today. - N 7PN o 2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest o —. inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion 741d ° ° of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you Km 0 . - are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely x o life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if , 0.00..•AM T.w - ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough 26„ time to wait to leave on Wednesday. --_ riW 90W /614 ■6W 7$W ?OW tiossoknos srn Cur.,',nlmmMion:R f ore0■6i positions: 3. Devastating hurricane force winds are expected along 70 «�■. ., u,■9■.,■ weal o..R«..-• portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane /NWT "'M"`°'°°'� '3. Nn5■raW Nnrfytl Carr K;.e�-.•-.��E rift* ',.,Y>,.r/■r7L.10..■9 Y.,,c^c^ Warningis in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a °'"R"■iR�"7.: w"d'u ""'""'� °u^"wM11N1. �",� Q4a. _ u.p9.. ..■..�T,■s,. �b1�■�M1Mb. hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life- — threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are v 4 expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations = to protect life and property, and to be ready for long- / duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. I 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through ,.. Thursday brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban rim flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding w combine to increase the overall flood threat. _- wtn■s4uw...w n.o w..t 1OSS .a.a..S t.Sa'O••m... --..wawa>�. ...*nrwn■.WO Meat 6■.r.ntl..D runarcwo..a..w u cm an....v .••ra.+»...W VV$00 ar....ta rp.ne....n■.rro.r.e...0 ins xxo.i.v c.n c... '- YcM YIM.9wnOnM�■■[...Mw.tl Y. For more information go to hurricanes.gov FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Threats* i * & Impacts FDE 0,,,,,1e4,0, 6ovt From the National Weather Service FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Storm Surge Wind Flooding Tornadoes - .y- ' _ A: , 2 I; i, , ;ricI ii- i J - I i 1 I: I�, _.. } ,,_, t� 'ia :ksonvillej.. ksonville cksonville lIk t u /� -`.. ` ,��O� Jam, 6 t/ :�:r,g Alii ris . ;--- fir„ f° cOisilli\4111" . is '1� .�-. ....d.Ra ard '� a ~� - / it I I,, ! v -I II Gulf of 1 jir lami IIA1➢I Marisa ` liami r I' ..1 <' "� ..r Straits Mroifs of ~ FrnnJ, Widespread deep inundation,with storm surge - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction and rescues. the execution of emergency plans during tropical waves.Structural damage to buildings,with many of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks events. washing away. Damage greatly compounded from large airborne projectiles. Locations may be in multiple places.Small streams,creeks,canals,and - Several places may experience tornado damage considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control uninhabitable for an extendedperiod. with a few spots of considerable damage, power - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with systems and barriers may become stressed. loss,and communications failures. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads fences and roadway signs blown over. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple washed out or severely flooded. Flood control communities,some structures uninhabitable - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more becoming systems and barriers may become stressed. mobile homes demolished,boxcars overturned, within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, or washed away. Many places where flood waters may Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. causeways, and access routes impassable. cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become large trees snapped or uprooted,vehicles tumbled, - Massive damage to marinas,docks, boardwalks, and rivers of movingwater with underpasses submerged. and small boats tossed about. Dangerous piers. Numerous small craft broken away from - Widespread power and communications outages. p 9 Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and projectiles can add to the toll. moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. ,„,,,....e,...._ ? SA: I 1* CurrentSurgeWatchesWarnings DEG As of 8:00 AM EDT Tuesday rt�fMr. .. , hA Peak Storm Surge Forecast River • State Forest Valdosta �, y � lb • I Upto3fG Upto6tt Upto9it to12ftl 12+tt •South Santee River 1-3 ft "" Tallahassee• .r Feet above ground levelJacksonville• • Apalachicola Cdisto Beach National Fore; • Sal Augusti e• 2-4 ft Gainesville• • Altamaha Sound Ocala• Daytona Beach• 3-5 ft St. Johns Orlando• p" 1-3 ft River...2-4 ft Kissimmee• Flaylcr/Vol Storm $urea Watrfrhac Indian Pass Suwannee River • • County Line 3-5 ft • Sebastian Inlet (Brevard/Indian River County) to la Vankeetowri 2-4 ft Vero Beach• 5-loft Volusia/Brevard County Line Fort Pierce• sota Anclote R • Tampa Bay...10-15 ft • Sehaoi,,: t 10-15ft Charlotte Storm Surge Warnings Forth westP lm Harbor...6-10 ft,, , • .:'4 -Flamingo (Mainland Monroe County), northward Englewood • , Oft to the Suwannee River (Dixie/Levy County) Naples Lauderdale Fort 6 . Bonita Beach • including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay Miami• 4-7 ft thole°'GSkM -Volusia/Brevard County Line to Mouth of St. 'a`''- Dry 3-5 ft 1-3 ft card sot t` Tortug s;..2-4ft Flannngo • Mary's River (Nassau County) including St. Florida Keys...1-3ft Johns River am Hurricane MiltonI User Notes:Water levels along the immediate coast could reach the following heights above Tuesday October 08. 2024 ground level within the indicated areas- Elevated water levels will likely be accompanied by large 04 AM CDT Advisory 13 NWS National Hurricane CenterI and destructive waves.Colors are determined by the highest values in the associated forecast F O U O — For Government Official Use Only peak surge range.Values shown on this graphic are inclusive of tide. y Rainfall Next 7 Days 0„,„.., -P.. From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC 7-Day Precipitation(in) - Rainfall totals heavily tied to the eventual track and Ending Monday,Oct.14,2024 at 8 p.m.EDT Init:Tue 2024-10-08 00z WPC . �- V - forward speed of the system. With computer model Mobile _ MIL East Pensaco a1 Height �,_ ! A �� guidance uncertainty regarding the exact track, there a �2, �� +acksonville '' anama City0 remains uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall can T Air ;1' 1 be expected. - Gainesville Gainesville —6.0" 4 .. DaytonaL - Widespread rainfall totals near 5-12" with locally higher totals in excess of 18" are possible across portions of Orlando 4, the Peninsula. r « Drier air circulating along the southern side of the 6 7pa' Pa '1 ' system as it moves across the Peninsula will keep 1` . heavy rainfall along the northern side of the system, • ' " Sarasota Port Saint fitUrfa 6, �% allowing for widespread rainfall to extend into *West Palm 1 i Northeast Florida. Cape Coral 3.3" I.uca, . - Computer models are indicating the heaviest 21! 0.0 it, i arainfall totals may occur along and north of the 1-4 corridor across Central Florida and into Northeast q-9" Florida and along South Florida coastlines; however, the exact placement of these more lv 7-Day Forecast Rainfall Totals — - significant totals will continue to be modified • Through Monday Evening (10/14) tal uveither, depending on the tropical disturbance's 0.01 0.05 0.1 02 03 04 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 09 1 12 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 6 8 10 15 organization and track. 1 1 I Linmi FOUO — For Government Official Use Only gedr*.**-"E"'6.-1 F I ash F Ioo u oo s e a s \ ,_,,,. , }H EGO'ry From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) •Tliscaloo - / •Tuscaloosa r�.0 / 'Tuscaloosa k HIV ghted Area Day 1 Hghlighted Area: Day 2 l-i ghllghted Area: Day 3 Weather Prediction Center Weather Prediction Center ' Weather Prediction Center 3 Florida 'Chat Issued Time:2024-10-0808:16:00 3 Honda •'C--hart Issued Time:2024-10-D808:16:00 3 Flontla AL � •Chart Issued Time:2024-14080616:00 _� Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid Time:12Z10,ow24-1zz10/082a - - Excessive Rainfall Outlook - validrme:lzzloiogr24-lzzlala24 _ Excessive Rainfall Outlook va�arme:12z10/10/24-12z1oriv24 °E'n� Tuesday,October 08,2024 9 A °etalutl Wednesday,October 09,2024 ' t20 •Selma Thursday,October 10,2024 9 t o;�..�� 1 � 1 1 ° J '-u-t "� ° •'Dou la °Albany •Dgu la •Ha'iesbur• •En•-•ota •Ha iesbur• •En•-•otha •Ha iesbur• °i n•�eorta Dothan Brunswic t Dothan •Brunswic t Dothan Brunswic t 'Moklle.Y ' aldost: - _ •fti7obde.0 _ _' :ald to . • •Gul po:- - 'Pensacol. - - i�� •Gut po:-IN- 'Pensacola li _ Pensacola _ — **Valdosta ��. wa osta 'We i ric �WA•s.L:e[L}+Ei(bl. QiMm R' , s Lam' ? 9:1lr s.L�fi ie. •'Apalach!col / Gameswll. •Apalachicol - Gamesvlll- '•Apalachicol calm ill. ala ;'''Dajl0it0. 'Ocala •'Da on:[1 _ ti 1 ocala��•'Da on. iFL Titusvdl it L r Tltuswll. F� Ti dl. e G , r�i++�1,V V �;_ -" •K ssimme- 011VVIrsimme- it -- MTamp. 'rat +• 'i`jTampa ero ,�'C ,a ero �wero c 7. t •::Sarasota ; °`G1232e ':f•S-ararras�ota •1 o iI 'fSarasota ti o ilk. �f *Wes' t3- il-- \ ` Wes °� -� 'Fl.r,ryer� 1Ft ,� .'1 , •Ff q , •Wes:f ProbablllTy of ezces t 0 rainfall ProbablllTy of excessive rainfall • Probabto r of d onsetVe ainfall •'NaPle • o i14:lrr leadin fora itlonsetnoodin :Naples�\ F.I4-nr lera fora itlonsetnoro Maples • o I41w 1eatlin fora itl onset 0otlin 9 P 9' 9 P 9' 9 P 9' 'Miami High Risk At least 70% Miami —High Risk At least l0% •Wham i High Risk At least 70% - i �Marlerate Rlsk At lees[4a% —Motlerete Risk At least 40% • —Moderate Risk At least 40% Slight Risk At least15% `. / Slight Risk At least15% `, Slight Risk At least15% akl —Mara net Risk At least 5% Ikz —Marginal Risk At least 5% Ikz —Marginal Risk At least 5% 0A0..fig1 'WiNin l5 miles olepoinr ,�=� 4�1 'Wirhln l5 miles ota pomf 'k ��I 'Hnmin 25 mika otap MaY not represent/ocelrzed , -� MaY not rePresenf bcelizetl ® MaY not rePresenf bcel'M 1 ° l goodnlg rnreef over eam aoare ' °I-�J�" ` noodme��roXe.wrn aoara. , ; ° noodine re�roXe.ea ara. L:.:rkt �Leallel Widespread heavy rainfall can be expected to continue today ahead of the outer bands of Milton, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 7 of 41 for Flash Flnnrlir throughout much of the Peninsula and Keys and into Northeast Florida today with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending into Nature Coast and farther into Northeast Florida. Coastal locations along the West Coast experienced flooding (both tidal and rainfall) due to Major Hurricane Helene, and any coastal or low-lying areas will remain vulnerable to additional rounds of rainfall. Heavy rainfall rates will also be a concern over already saturated and vulnerable soils; ponding water and instances of flooding will be possible, especially throughout the urban and poor drainage/low-lying areas in the Florida Peninsula. WPC has issued a rare High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the 1-4 corridor and northward through the Nature Coast for Wednesday as Milton approaches the west coast of Florida and moves onshore. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding spreads across much of North and Central Florida Wednesday with a ;light pick ii , i 1 rf Al extending into portions of the Northwestern Peninsula and into South Florida. A c1i,ihf fr, Moderate Risk (level 2-3 of 4) for Flash Flooding is maintained north of Lake Okeechobee through Central Florida and into Northeast Florida Thursday as - Milton makes its way off the Florida East Coast. „ERGENc, a a Flood FDE J o�i-pOF THE GOvtY. From the National Weather Service (NWS) \ .. -ta _ HOLMES O JACKSON uSAXTA RO SA>��eoa� Eglin l/wurew WASHINGTON GADSOEN t FIT: Tat.;3. ee HAMILTON Levy Volusia Citrus Hernando 1 •• } -� +� `• IEOX s MAOISON �Ia .iA•/��\ BAY AWOU/N/1 CEDED � ;f�ni ilIe 6E RTY 10!8 y r St AKVLL4 SUWANNEE TAYLOR Pasco Pinellas Hillsborough Manatee -'r IAFAYE iTE CLAY BRADFORD FMNKLI ..,GILCHRIST ..j, GILCHRIST `- DIXIE t •a'°n Coast Sarasota Charlotte Lee Collier FLAGLEK C Monroe Hendry Glades Highlands a. =Ca° ` Hardee DeSoto Polk Sumter �'1�'I:F1:l�Z•J .�-'® RREVARD GEM 'e't-11f1i Lake Seminole Orange Osceola IL SBOROUGH 1 B J, `E �RIYER Brevard Okeechobee Indian River St. Lucie �r-I,rata� t ort St ti t immita cie SARASOTA DESOTO �® Martin Palm Beach Broward Marion 41 CHARLOTTE 'W'TSt FJIm i :eadi 1 . MU� Flagler Putnam Alachua Gilchrist oca Eaton Flood Watches remain in effect for Bz ch St. Johns Clay Bradford Union the Florida Peninsula, spanning from . lam] the Suwannee Valley and Northeast MONROE. Columbia Suwannee Baker Duval s Florida and all throughout the Nassau Peninsula the following counties: .0,.- as �1 F- River • • urren orecas FDE Eep'\ipOF THE GO From the National Weather S e ry i c e * f c . A River Flood Warning remains in effect along the St. Johns River at Astor as water H r• • Q� •��-_ levels will remain within Minor Flood Sta9c, over the next several days, rising into 'Ax K • •�Tom ° Moderate Flood Stage later this week as heavy rainfall occurs over trapped water levels _ •••°^ ICI . " n # ... k .., • 1 • • within the basin. ° tb ' The flood wave will progress down the Suwannee River well into next week and water -f,� levels will slowly decline. As flood waters from the Georgie headwaters continue to travel ° `1 ro down the basins, additional '"-- . ....•, -"-- ' - --"ng will be possible along lower portions 0• mow of the Suwannee River by late this week or this weekend. Backwater flooding is forecast . }` along lower portions of the Santa Fe with the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates .'i already experiencing ninor floodin and expected to reach Moderate Flood Stage by • �1 next weekend. I. lip • M O i 4.... , 0., �■ , Numerous River Flood Warnings have been issued for ninor to moderate flooding Forecast Flood Stage D - along North and West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, and waterways (including portions of / n-- x ;.. the Manatee River, Myakka River, Hillsborough River, Peace River at SR-60 Bartow and D at SR-70 Arcadia, Horse Creek, Fisheating Creek, and North Fork and South Fork Black ♦— Current Flood Stage a �m•eth Creek) with widespread rainfall anticipated over the next few days. The Alafia River at "'{ Riverview near US-301 and at Lithia Pinecrest, Peace River at Zolfo Springs, Cypress aye. �a •.15��, Creek at SR-54, and Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US-301 is forecast to reach �ote..c e�' ti Major Flood Stage by mid-to-late this week. laml Below Flood Additional River Flood Warnings will likely be issued over the next few days with f Action Level `'.>.. i numerous other rivers, creeks, and waterways forecast to reach minor to moderate Minor Flood - • flood stage. El0 Moderate Flood Ur ■ Major Flood am For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ERG[Ntp aRiver Flood W . „.,... _ ..4-4°0,TNE GO From the National Weather Service River Gauge si County(ies) Affected E Current Level 0 Crest Level Q Record Level Status 0 Crest DayO Warning Expires Alafia River at Riverview near US-301 Hillsborough Below: 2.94 ft Major: 12.90 ft 9.40 ft Rising (Tidal) 10-Oct 1532 EDT 10-Oct Alafia River at Lithia Pinecrest Road at Lithia Hillsborough Below: 8.49 ft Major: 19.60 ft 28.50 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice Cypress Creek at SR-54 Pasco Minor: 8.48 ft Ma'. • 1 I 1 13.80 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice Fisheating Creek at Palmdale Glades Action: 6.25 ft Minor. .90 ft 12.40 ft Steady TBD Until Further Notice Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills Hillsborough Below: 4.12 ft Minor: 12.80 ft 15.30 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR-72 DeSoto Action: 10.64 ft Moderate: 15.00 ft 21.20 ft Rising 11-Oct Until Further Notice Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US-301 Hillsborough Below: 7.82 ft Major:118.20 ft 20.10 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice Manatee River near Myakka Head at SR-64 Manatee Below: 7.88 ft Moderate: 15.80 ft 20.90 ft Steady 10-Oct Until Further Notice Myakka River at Myakka River State Park Sarasota Minor: 7.13 ft Moderate: 9.90 ft 12.80 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice North Fork Black Creek near Middleburg Clay Below: 5.84 ft Moderate: 20.00 ft 27.90 ft Rising 11-Oct Until Further Notice South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms Clay Below: 4.89 ft Moderate: 18.50 ft 29.40 ft Steady 10-Oct Until Further Notice Peace River at SR-60 Bartow Polk Below: 6.95 ft Moderate: 9.20 ft I 11.10 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice Peace River at Zolfo Springs Hardee Below: 12.24 ft Major: 22.30 ft ' 27.20 ft Rising 11-Oct Until Further Notice Peace River at SR-70 Arcadia DeSoto Action: 10.13 ft Moderate: 14.90 ft_ 23.70 ft Steady TBD Until Further Notice Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates Columbia, Gilchrist, Minor: 17.98 ft Moderate: 21.40 ft 33.40 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice Suwannee Santa Fe at Worthington Springs Alachua, Bradford, Union Below: 54.69 ft Minor: 63.90 ft 71.20 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice St. Johns River at Astor Volusia, Lake Minor: 2.86 ft oderate: 3.90 ft 4.70 ft Rising 11-Oct Until Further Notice St. Marys River near Macclenny Baker, Nassau Below: 4.42 ft Minor: 14.90 ft 24.40 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice , FOUO - For Government Official Use Only Last Updated: 0645 EDT 8-Oct RGtYAdditionaltoMonitor q. 4,,..°.i From the National Weather Service River Gauge E County(ies) Affected E Current Level E Crest Level E Record Leveig Status 0 Crest DayO Warning Expires Alapaha River near Jennings Columbia , ••- - : N/A 93.30 ft Rising N/A No Warning Issued Anclote River near Elfers at Little Road Pasco Below: 13.09 ft Minor: 0.50 ft 27.70 ft Steady 11-Oct No Warning Issued Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge Hillsborough Below: 28.31 ft Minor: 33.00 ft 34.70 ft Steady TBD No Warning Issued Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam Putnam ..- - - . N/A 9.70 ft Rising N/A Ocklawaha River at Moss Bluff Marion ..- . - - N/A N/A ' Rising N/A No Warning Issued Santa Fe River near Hildreth Gilchrist, Suwannee _ Below: 17.66 ft Minor: 21.50 ft 33.40 ft _ Rising TBD No Warning Issued Santa Fe River near Fort White Columbia, Gilchrist Below: 21.38 ft Minor: 24.70 ft 35.40 ft Steady TBD No Warning Issued Santa Fe River near High Springs Alachua, Columbia Below: 31.63 ft Minor: 38.70 ft 48.50 ft Steady 13-Oct No Warning Issued Santa Fe River at O'leno State Park Alachua, Columbia, Union Below: 39.35 ft Minor: 51.90 ft 57.10 ft Steady 12-Oct No Warning Issued St. Johns River above Lake Harney Seminole, Volusia Below: 5.99 ft Minor: 8.50 ft 12.70 ft Rising TBD No Warning Issued Suwannee River at Branford (US-27) Gilchrist, Lafayette, Below: 21.95 ft Minor: 25.90 ft 38.10 ft Rising TBD No Warning Issued Suwannee Suwannee River at Rock Bluff near Bell (CR-340) Dixie, Gilchrist, Lafayette Action: 15.17 ft Minor: 18.10 ft N/A Rising TBD No Warning Issued Suwannee River at Manatee Springs Dixie, Levy Action: 5.29 ft Minor: 7.30 ft 16.00 ft Rising TBD No Warning Issued Withlacoochee River at US-41 Dunnellon Citrus, Levy, Marion Below: 28.18 ft Minor: 29.90 ft 33.00 ft _ Steady TBD No Warning Issued Withlacoochee River near Holder at SR-200 Citrus, Marion, Sumter Below: 6.45 ft Minor: 8.80 ft 13.30 ft _ Rising TBD No Warning Issued Withlacoochee River at US-301 Trilby Hernando, Pasco Below: 9.26 ft Minor: 13.20 ft 20.40 ft Falling TBD No Warning Issued FOUO - For Government Official Use Only Last Updated: 0645 EDT 8-Oct a(100RGENcr Net I From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) OY�G� i g anie.rr,o,ida i Last Updated:Oet0720741147 PMCDT Highlighted Arm Florida last Updated.Or,0870241217AM CDT Hignli:Fted Pre..Pot ida i 7 Lail Updated:Oet08302401a5 AM cot 1�styli nce Severe Weather Outlook Valid Until:Oct 092074070D AM CDT Severe Weather Outlook "'d"""`°<I lomuo7oo AM Ti. Severe Weather Outlook gaud Until:OCt 1130240J00 AM CDT Tuesday,October 08,2024 Wednesday,October 09,2024 I Thursday,October 10,2024 --7 i . Penza(la Tallahassee Pcnsa�la 1^{ �� Pensa I�la Tallahassee ^. +: �` ,Tallahassee Y ia<kson,lle ^. +: o Jacksonville Jacksonville L . s...Destin ��o �/ "��-�oestinoestin o Panama oty' o , Panama oty , ) ranama city o 1 Palm Coast Palm[oast Palm Coast ` Gainesville Daytona Beach Galnes�ine` A Daytona Beach Gainesville Daytona Beach Orlando 0 Cape Canaveral i orinnao ►7■plops Canaveral Orlando Cape Canaveral Tampa Tampa jJ Tampa '� Melbourne Melbourne I Melbourne 7to Okeechobee �F[.Pierce Okeechobee 1Ft.Pierce • Okeechobee FL Pierce Sarasota �''�, $iriaOla $� _ Sarasota A _ \air \II Ft.Myers West Palm Beach Ft.hi O \/•V\/ West Palm Beach Ft.M O `/•VJ\ West Palm Bead' \ lhon Ft.Lauderdale yers it.Lauderdale yersFt.Lauderdale Naples Naples Naples�Marathon Marathon LOlill T • • 1111/11P- Kef S • • Ke�WeS[ � •f1r a D CS]High Risk i S Hlgh Risk t --kk WW 5]High Risk � fill Moderate Risk F�. C4- Moderate Risk 4)Moderate Risk of'' &33 Enhanced Risk f 3 Enhanced Risk _ 3 I Enhanced Risk aearr � ` 2 Slight Risk 2 Slight Risk ` stein Slight Risk se Pad.cea, ME Marginal Risk o„o e,.a�a�on c.oto, C1 •T Marginal Risk ..diction C...or 17 Marginal Risk ra.u...�r.e...e. r..— OThunderstorms r„„. , o , l Thunderstorms „t ,,l.,,,,, ,ti Thunderstorms The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along much of the western Florida Peninsula and across South Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday and a '"-'-' 'fir'- (ley- • _r A` r_- Set__ _ vr1/4...,aa,.. along and south of the 1-4 corridor with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending northward towards Gainesville Wednesday as isolated tropical tornadoes will be possible within Hurricane Milton's outer rainbands. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is maintained across South Florida and along lower portions of the Central-East Coast Thursday as trailing outer bands may continue to move through as Milton moves off the East Coast of Florida. Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant. i Tropical S Leslie FDE \o„HEG,,,- p From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show • Location: 1335 miles WNW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands -�4 the size of the storm.Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. TN K� � • Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 mph 35 s"lc • Current Movement: NW at 13 mph in AL GA 3Q ). "` This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days F1� d} followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. Leslie should gradually 25N _� h;,'_ weaken during the next several days. 20N -- '-' ft s AM Tue,8 PM Mon Leslie poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 10 days, at least. --,.,:_ms, 8AMThu s — `F. 8 AM Wed d 8 PM Sun GOES-16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature(C)at 14:1SZ Oct 08,2024 1AOPICALTIOBITS.COM 15N H : H� 11 AM Sat ' , t��- 8 AM Mon �IH � 10N I� . ,' 8 AM Sun l: �j ' -,!folomb1a 3 ., ` , ' - 1 o I +' F' 1 `_ 5N 1 0 he . i , 1 4 \'; Att.s\: I10 • 90W 80W 70W'" , 60W-" 50W 40W 30W I r Hurricane Leslie Current information: x Forecast positions: lit4. , .t-,., ` s • , k .o Saturday October 05,2024 Center location 11.1 N 35.4 W •Tropical Cyclone 0 Post/Potential TC _ • ' ) 11 AM AST Advisory 13 Maximum sustained wind 80 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph r li-so NWS National Hurricane Center Movement WNW at 7 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph ' Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: ti - - .Y 'r 4 CI)1y 1-3 C Day 4-5 Hurricane Trop Stm Hurricane�Trop Stm Hurricane Tr_.L,Sl n f� R ,'f�}0.4 til! -to - L.!'- r FOUO — For Government Official Use Only - ( CrTil W Outlook \* ,... Disturbance 1 — Southwestern Atlantic Q Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook '`��""`': National Hurricane Center Miami,Florida %`'�,'; i " J Disturbance 1 '- WWW'h / S ` •y guy,.„,. +►�''� 45N A broad area of low pressure is near the northern Bahamas with 1141.err . e disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some - 4114r . 35N development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward a5N around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to increase later in �., :!:;,,. 7 ii, the week, which should limit further development. r ';_.. ,� This system poses no direct threat to Florida. MC50 l0 2024 FREI r' av 41 W W 100 Current Disturbances and Seven-Day Cy clone FormationChance: nce: 6 �� ,. tt <ao°� x 40-60% X >so% Chance of development through 48 hours. . . Doo�In 00020°Do Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone: 0 Depression 4 Storm f Hurricane 0 Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants Chance of development through 7 days. . .knw... 30% 4 ' o ft* o 48 Hour Formation 7 Day Formation FOUO — For Government Official Use Onl gTropical POutlook .:„.G Disturbance 2 — Eastern Tropical Atlantic Q Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook "`': National Hurricane Center Miami,Florida %`'�,'; v Disturb i ance 1 - ` y WWW'h • / S K r> gUi0 + `� 45N A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa 110401177.1- . e in a couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear 35N only marginally favorable for some limited development of this Mkt system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde ., :'>:;,,, j Islands on Thursday or early Friday. r ';_.. ,� This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 10 �toa.ct72o24 r A, FREI 5N days, at least. 100W 70b1.ry ' 20W Current Disturbances and Seven-Day Cyclone Formation Chance: n <40% x 40-60% X >60% Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone: 0 Depression 4 Storm f Hurricane 0 Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants Chance of development through 48 hours. . . U OO N o o o ME 00 % Chance of development through 7 days. . .Dow00020% o 6 ' o 48 Hour Formation 7 Day Formation FOUO — For Government Official Use Onl 020 EMERGEN«M4ry9 CR m CN ti FDE SummaryFOUO — For Government Official Use Only Major Hurricane Milton: • As of 11:00 AM EDT, Milton is located about 520 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and moving east-northeastward at 9 mph. • A turn toward the northeast with an increased in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. • On the forecast track,the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday. • Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts making Milton an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. • While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. • Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected long portions of the west coast of Florida. • Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula,with life-threatening hurricane-force wind especially in gusts,are expected to spread inland across the Peninsula. • Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages,should be complete tonight. • Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.The official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. • Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for West-Central Florida. Tropical Storm Leslie: • As of 11:00 AM EDT, Leslie is located about 1435 miles west-northwest of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands and moving northwestward at 13 mph. • This general motion is expected today,followed by a turn to the north late Wednesday and to the northeast by Friday. • Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. • Little significant chance in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. • Leslie poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 10 days, at least. Southwestern Atlantic: • A broad area of low pressure is near the northern Bahamas with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. • Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. • Upper-level winds are likely to increased later in the week, which should limit further development. • The National Hurricane Center(NHC)is outlooking a low(20%) chance for development through the next 48 hours,and a low(20%) chance for development through the next 7 days. • This system poses no direct threat to Florida. East Tropical Atlantic: • A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. • Afterward, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday. • The National Hurricane Center(NHC)is outlooking a low(near 0%) chance for development through the next 48 hours, and a low(20%)chance for development through the next 7 days. • This system poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 10 days, at least. The next briefing packet will be issued on Tuesday evening. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. E,^ERGENE ro �m p 'C 2 -� FDE Summary O,e,C4.Of THE G01'5' FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Florida Outlook: • Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the following counties: St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, Volusia, Levy, Marion, Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Seminole, Brevard, Orange, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Indian River, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee • Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the following counties: Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Jefferson, Taylor, Suwannee, Lafayette, Dixie, Gilchrist, Columbia, Alachua, Union, Bradford, Clay, Nassau, Duval, Clay, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Glades, Palm Beach, Hendry, Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe (Florida Keys & Dry Tortugas) • Hurricane Watches are in effect for the following counties: Nassau, Duval, Clay, Okeechobee, Glades, Hendry, Collier, Dry Tortugas • Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the following counties: Inland Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, Eastern Columbia, Baker, Union, Bradford, Eastern Alachua, • Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for: • Flamingo (Mainland Monroe) northward to the Suwannee River(Levy/Dixie County Line), including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay • Port Canaveral (Brevard County) northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River(Nassau County) • Storm Surge Watches are in effect for: • South of Port Canaveral (Brevard County)to Sebastian Inlet (St. Lucie/Indian River County Line) • Peak Storm Surge forecasts: • Anclote River (Pasco/Pinellas County Line)to Englewood (Sarasota/Charlotte County Line), including Tampa Bay: 10-15' • Englewood (Sarasota/Charlotte County Line)to Bonita Beach (Lee/Collier County Line), including Charlotte Harbor: 6-10' • Yankeetown (Levy/Citrus County Line)to Anclote River(Pasco/Pinellas County Line): 5-10' • Bonita Beach (Lee/Collier County Line)to Chokoloskee (Collier/Monroe County Line): 4-7' • Suwannee River to Yankeetown and Chokoloskee to Flamingo: 3-5' • Flagler/Volusia County Line to Florida-Georgia state line: 3-5' • Sebastian Inlet to FlaglerNolusia County Line: 2-4' • Dry Tortugas: 2-4' • St. Johns River: 2-4' • Surge values will be dependent on the future path of Milton and its approach to the Florida West Coast, and updates to the forecast can be expected. The next briefing packet will be issued on Tuesday evening. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. otaGEmeNt Cf 'yes,/ � eta ummaryFOUO — For Government Official Use Only Florida Outlook Cont.: • Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Tuesday, well ahead of Milton, with rainfall more directly tied to Milton expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread rainfall totals near 5-12" with locally higher totals in excess of 18" are possible across portions of the Peninsula. • This rainfall brings the risk for life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along with moderate to major riverine flooding. • Rainfall totals heavily tied to the eventual track and forward speed of the system. With computer model guidance uncertainty regarding the exact track, there remains uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall can be expected. • The Weather Prediction Center(WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout most of the Peninsula and towards Northeast Florida today with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending into southern portions of the Suwannee Valley. • A rare High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked along the 1-4 corridor and northward through the Nature Coast for Wednesday as Milton approaches the west coast of Florida and moves onshore. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding spreads across much of North and Central Florida Wednesday with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) extending into portions of the Northwestern Peninsula and into South Florida. • A Slight to Moderate Risk (level 2-3 of 4) for Flash Flooding is maintained north of Lake Okeechobee through Central Florida and into Northeast Florida Thursday as Milton makes its way off the Florida East Coast. • Flood Watches extend from the Suwannee Valley, Northeast Florida and throughout the entire Peninsula. • Rivers, creeks/streams, and waterways across North and Central Florida are already running above normal for this time of year due to widespread heavy rainfall from Hurricane Debby. River Flood Warnings remain in effect along portions of the Withlacoochee, Aucilla, St. Johns, and several West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, and waterways for ongoing minor to moderate flooding. • Numerous River Flood Warnings have been issued as heavy rainfall is anticipated this week, likely leading to water level rises in the Florida Peninsula. • Computer models are currently suggesting there is potential for widespread minor to moderate flooding across West-Central Florida waterways, with instances of major flooding possible near the maximum rainfall totals. • Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk for life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major riverine flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland combine to increase the overall flood threat. • Outer bands moving onshore may bring isolated tropical tornadoes along the Florida West Coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning (Marginal Risk for Severe Weather— level 1 of 5) and along much of the Peninsula throughout the day Wednesday(Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather— level 1-2 of 5). • Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant. • A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is maintained across South Florida and along lower portions of the Central-East Coast Thursday as trailing outer bands may continue to move through as Milton moves off the East Coast of Florida. The next briefing packet will be issued on Tuesday evening. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. aa Gen c/ y it �,,1ErER % 1 °41)* Tropical Update MR Y) ....„,,--..., �FryHEGO FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Created by : Kennedy Tartt, Assistant State Meteorologist Kennedy. Tarttem . myflorida . com State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topicid=SERTMetTropics. Other reports available for subscription are available at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?preferences=true p�040GENc. 11tillirill am N S 9 FLORIDA % co 4 - I* Tropical Up MR7) p,,, p� 4ff�� 'C4.OFTHEGoNO.......____ ` ONSE TE 8 : 30 AM EDT Wednesday, October 9 , 2024 Major Hurricane Milton Winds Will Begin to Increase Along the West Coast of Florida by This Afternoon Preparations, Including Evacuation If Told to Do So, Should Be Rushed to Completion This Morning This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office, or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov. U Ufr,...,c, Major Hurricane Milton ^R oP/ k� NE, GOsi' 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday: Florida Threats & Changes Since Last Packet [OO o Par Cant m@h2 ()filth' Um Only MINIMAL Low MODERATE HIGH EXTREME GOES-16 Channel 13(IR)Brightness Temperature('C))at 09:O7Z Oct 09,2024 TROPICALTIDBITS COM 28°N —.-- - 4i 40 , - ' iiill —41 avAND2 mil - 1 M $ - --imprigr illiMplp911111 —� , ki I26•N --3. # f V RlUV N if , , 4� 144 , • . - - -20 iii 25° VVe I ', o 71MM11110 illir" 14=MMV ., 414 F L7Ll S C J 24°N .. # ' `:: `. `. 40 r, .r IIIIIMIIMINIMEr ITO D NADCM 22°N ' - w'4',lr T �tE + �a• r + � - . �. .• Low MODERATE HIGH 31°N .' '..' . '-80 .41 .; // S .. AI .. -90 90°W 89°W 88 W 87 W 85 • s�., 84°W 83°W 82°W 81°W 80°W e . . Satellite imagery as of 5:00 AM EDT C�RRE�U � 9 Y Overview/Recent Changes: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Milton remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 urricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 - mph. Milton is approximately 250 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and is moving northeast at 16 mph. Milton is forecast to make landfall late tonight/early Thursday morning as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane along the West-Central Florida coastline. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for West-Central Florida. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. ..sRGENtY +O a Major Hurricane Milton FDE . \�k�O THE GG0P'l From the National Hurricane Center (NHC © ITV ote:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show •`°°"f+ •• Location: 250 miles SW of Tampa, Florida the size of the storm.Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. ? 4�,, IL p„ ., • Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 mph, Category 4 ri.,,,,,,, • Current Movement: NE at 16 mph Alph, wv ,.� A northeastward motion is expected through today. A turn toward the east- /35N , TN QLIMon northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast 1 I �" �G�ilSun track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico MS i AL 1-1P GIf.YY� : rmuda S today, make landfall along the West-Central Florida Coast late tonight or F S � 2-PM-Thu early Thursday morning, and move off the Florida East Coast over the ,_.. , 30N 2 AM Thu J © western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Milton is expected to remain H T o an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central © "e �`�'�2 AM Friz� coast of Florida tonight. 25N -X, - , ' xy ) B t,,,,,, s \8 AM Weld `n ...,:• ° - This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should IN `��• �d -- closely follow orders from their local emergency management 20N officials. 90Wo + 85W .: �w 75W ,fit low 65W sow 55W - Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to Hurricane Milton Current information: x Forecast positions: completion. Wednesday October 09,2024 Center location 25.0 N 84.8 W •Tropical Cyclone 0 Post/Potential TC - Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive 8 AM EDT Intermediate Advisory 17A Maximum sustained wind 155 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NE at 16 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph hurricanes on record for West-Central Florida. Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: - Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall C -' Day 1-5 Hurricane TropStm MHurricane MTropStmHurricane Tr.;u Sin will extend well outside the forecast cone. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only �ItGENt� a sCurrent * FDE Q. As of 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday \kOf iNF GOEP f � A NOLNIES v•Rosa JACKSON (: SANTA RO SAfa glin EgGn i.h"'•'O^wASNiNcroN .® Hurricane Warning: St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, Marion, Levy, Fac==aEe csosoEN T,�I CALHOUN BA, FI Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Volusia, Hernando, Seminole, Orange, LIBERTY y T NdY'nWAKULL•A Fo sr ®FOROCLAY�aamn Polk,Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Indian River, St. Lucie, Okeechobee, Highlands, Hardee, Manatee, Sarasota, DeSoto, Charlotte, Lee Tropica' Storm Warning: Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, MEM Coastal Jefferson, Taylor, Suwannee, Dixie, Lafayette, Columbia, Gilchrist, Baker, Union, Bradford, Alachua, Clay, Nassau, Duval, Martin, Glades, Hendry, Palm Beach, Collier, Broward, Miami- m UESUTO Dade, Monroe (Mainland & Keys), Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee OM MIMI �Uel= E Hurricane Watch: Nassau, Duval, Clay, Martin, Glades, Hendry, Collier, Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee Tropical Storm Watch : Inland Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton FOUO — For Government Official Use Only (Zt Timing of Arriv I Tro icat Storm - F rce Con i i n s FDE \�k4°fr� c•°' ''' From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) -iii. vi. Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds :ilk! Tropical storm-force conditions will most likely arrive along the West 90W 85W 80W 75W 70W 65W 60W 55W Florida coastline Wednesday afternoon and evening and spread 40N eastward across the Florida Peninsula through the overnight and Mo79 lir; early mornings hours on Thursday. KY • Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as midday — Wednesday along the western Florida Peninsula. TM NC • Probabilities (shaded) will continue to increase as Milton's landfall is AR- - --------- A. 35N Sc ,)� closer in the forecast period. S ` MS AL GA ur 0#• 9 Location Probability LA r i, • T 3 tn� Key West r we ,)� SG 0) co 9 °°3 Naples 82% (+2%) a - web ip ... .0 _ i3 Fort Myers 1 85% (+4%) - a .o•N � ,� 3 We °„A - Miami 14% (-1%) do -4 3 EIMMI ,3,, 8, West Palm \ ~ , Venice 100% (+2%) Tampa —11" 98% (+6%) J.:4-e-z I co - Orlando 87% (+11%) Cocoa Beach 1 92% (+2%) I ' All Times CDT Cedar Key 60% (+14%) Hurricane Milton Storm Location Oh<34 kt(39 mph) 5-day chance of receiving sustained 34+kt(39+mph)winds Wed. Oct.9, 2024 4 am CDT & §34-63 kt(39-73 mph) HI' lM --MINDaytona Beach Advisory 17 Wind Speed l264 kt(74 mph) 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Gainesville 23% (+6%) Jacksonville FOUO — For Government Official Use Only ItGENty sIHurricane- Force Wind Con i i n s Nef°c ., EG°�a From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) ,.Hurricane-Force Wind Speed Probabilities "`"`� Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions "v VII/ For the 120 hours(5.00 days)from 1 AM CDT WED OCT 09 to 1 AM CDT MON OCT 14lalp of the west coast of Florida. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across MS A the Peninsula as Milton cross the region. r I LA �1_____ Hurricane-force wind speed probabilities continue to increase along 3ON the Florida West Coast and will further increase along the coast .: ' and inland along the 1-4 corridor as Milton's nears the coastline. :,- JO Location Probability e--• Naples 6% � , , . �, Fort Myers 11% 25N _ -J Bahama West Palm 4% Venice 72% Cana 7 ' 0 Tampa 55% Orlando 18% G ,- sow"° '7 85W i 80W 75W a,t Cocoa Beach 33% Probability of hurricane-force winds(1-minute average>=74 mph)from all tropical cyclones Cedar Key3% 0 indicates Hurricane Milton center location at 1 AM CDT WED OCT 09,2024(Forecast/Advisory#17) 5 0 1 0 0 50 60 70 80 90 % Daytona Beach 2% FOUO — For Government Official Use Only �ItGENty �Of Key M %c.c." From the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Key Messages for Hurricane Milton Advisory 17: 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 09, 2024 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with N.��: ;• �:o ,o, highest inundations of 10 ft or greater. is expected „N along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening , situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible ° if ordered by local officials. " 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected 4AN along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a - Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to „w eewSOW MN row remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida informal:on • Forecast positions: . ,. Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, '"�'"°'"'" vo�entw lock r■■: W■lelw: rings: rig wing especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland o . , Q... ... . .. .-.... ..n� across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life , pak56ormSuryeForexast and property, including being ready for long-duration v power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life- °" E threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase caw , " ,: the overall flood threat. ".°.:• " r f:`O MO ww.ww...r......y n....e..:.w.an.rnnee..y .m. For more information go to hurricanes.gov FOUO — For Government Official Use Only fltGE/1t�r �Of s* ThreatsImpacts .„... E_ °a., From the National Weather Service FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Storm Surge Wind Flooding Tornadoes , 0‘3-ry-, ;. ' •?---177 ‘,,/ --:,• iv 11---- --' 7 i. i;, 1im11i 1 , _ 4I, cksonville ` i J1lbaff a,cksonvill yr. cksonville ±cksonville ,c___ 1 1 f Oil\ 111-4 1 Ji$ ,ffilmmi ;__. ,, `��MI '5 C, , 1 me 7ial Rif- 1 - ,. _ Gi:i( of Aiaml h^exico II will Iiami diami allitL . V i *01.� •y` t �L.I s r,__.�_ Cf reify nI I PM - Widespread deep inundation,with storm surge Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous - The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly flooding greatly accentuated by powerful batteri complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction evacuations and rescues. hinder the execution of emergency plans during waves.Structural damage to buildings,with many of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflo tropical events. washing away. Damage greatly compounded from large airborne projectiles. Locations may be their banks in many places with deep moving water. Many places may experience tornado damage with considerable floating debris.Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Small streams,creeks,canals,and ditches may a few spots of immense destruction, power loss, uninhabitable for an extended period. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with become raging rivers. Flood control systems and - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads and communications failures. fences and roadway signs blown over. barriers may become stressed. Locations could realize roof and wall failures of washed out or severely flooded. Flood control Many roads impassable from large debris, and more - Flood waters can enter numerous structures withiniii systems and barriers may become stressed. sturdy buildings with some being leveled, structures within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, multiple communities, some structures becoming - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible causeways, and access routes impassable. uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places upon weak foundations blown away, mobile homes - Massive damage to marinas,docks,boardwalks,an obliterated, large trees twisted and snapped with piers. Numerous small craft broken away from Widespread power and communications outages. where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. and parking lots become rivers of raging water with forested trees uprooted,vehicles lifted off the underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become ground and thrown, and boats destroyed. Large and very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures deadly projectiles can add to the toll. with some weakened or washed out. 0,„,GE4c► "0 ? ,, Current S Surge Watches & Warnings * 1• FDE , As of 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday\�Or r�� 'aEa Peak Storm Surge ForecastII ackwatl r Rlve Val - State Forest ohipoitit" . . rUp to ft Up lob t Up to 9 ft IV0 12 ftl 12+ft_] • uth Santee Riverill Feet above round level mac — Tallahassee• F ab v c 1-3 ft lac— I • Edisto Beach N-clonal ,rest. Sal 2 4 ft , _ f August'.e • Gainesville• • .... . 0_1\4 •Altamaha Sound 4 Ocala• Daytona Beach• -_125 ,._r� I �f ,land `4�� St. Johns • Orlando• WI , River...2-4 ft -. • 1 3 ft 3 5 ft r Kissimmee• m]imi Pass tv,IL, Ta Yankeetown • - 2-4 ft Vero Beach• Aripeka Fort rce• • Sarasota 4-7 ft , • Anclote River Tampa i Ba 8 12 ft * Sebastian Inlet 8-12 ft y.- West Palm Anna Maria Island 1-3 ft Fort Beach• it10-15 ft it Charlotte • Palm Beach/Martin coup_ • Boca de •! Harbor...8-12 ft i-- .•_-_ Naples• Fort Lauderdale• 8-12 ft NO"• Storm Surge Warnings • Bonita Beach -J. Flamingo (Mainland Monroe County), northward to Mtaml• 5-8 ft chokolosk •�4 Yankeetown (Levy/Citrus County) including Charlotte ,,es 3-5 ft1.3;•Card Scrum]Bridyi- . Harbor and Tampa Bay . - • Dry ' Tortug s...2-4 ft Fla • Florida -Brevard/Indian River County Line to Mouth of St. Mary's /�r. �,,.., • - Keys...1-3 ft River (Nassau County) including St. Johns River KeyWRse. Hurricane MiltonI User Notes:Water levels along the immediate coast could reach the following heights above Wednesday October 09, 2024 ground level within the indicated areas. Elevated water levels will likely be accompanied by large 08 AM EDT Advisory 17A and destructive waves.Colors are determined by the highest values in the associated forecast F O U O — For Government Official Use Only NWS National Hurricane Center peak surge range.Values shown on this graphic are inclusive of tide. y � �uc Rainfall Next 7 Days ,.„„,.. a From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Precipitation(in) Ending Wednesday,Oct.16,2024at8a.m.EDT __ _ !nit:Wed 2024-10-09 12z WPC - Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through r_atactrnnhi and Mobile __ MEW , Thursday brings the risk of East Pensaco a Heights Tallahassee �� '�`�. ,� 3�' � f Jacksonville threatening flash and urban flooding, along with >f "P`any`a`�ma@itT ;r ��'-� �:� 9., moderate to major riverine flooding. ;1' irjr,q4 -4 Gainy�esville 'rr - Widespread rainfall totals near 6-12" with ocally� higher 4i Daytona Beach pg 12.4" totals in excess of 18" are possible across portions of the Peninsula, mainly along the 1-4 corridor. • Or1l no'd - Drier air circulating along the southern side of the r Tampa p�l system as it moves across the Peninsula will keep 14.9" 45 heavy rainfall along the northern side of the system, - Sarasota Port.Saint1 allowing for widespread rainfall to extend into Northeast Florida. =-40 11. j 4estPalm - Computer models are indicating the heaviest a 2.4w Lucaya `2•�5" 2.4" rainfall totals may occur along and north of the 1-4 corridor across Central Florida and into Northeast Miami Florida and along South Florida coastlines; 41.5" I however, the exact placement of these more significant totals will continue to be modified 7-Day Forecast Rainfall Totals — IIIIP depending on the tropical disturbance's Through Tuesday Night (10/15) ...e_ tal weatherI organization and track. 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 09 1 12 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 6 8 10 15 FOUO — For Government Official Use Only e %t Next 3 D %c.c THE GG�A a From the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) ® Flash Flood Outlook: Wednesday Flash Flood Outlook: Thursday Created by FOEM State Metocvoio scar Sugrod Cher II Data Iran WPC.US Census BarnesBureau.Natural Earth Created by FDEM State Meter ,born WPC.US Census Bureau,Nahxal Earth :;,i^•Ai- SLOW r. )ti[FU.If MCI . ..„_..., It(' 'H. ter . , r ..:,.. . ,, Ta our r to , I t d NO floods Possih:e .. f ry Isolated Nash floods sibA , , ', xax�. Marginal .r FI ,4 rginal .. IA14._ g LaN 1 nat 11 1 ^�lt�+' Slight Scattered flat floods po pet.. .. ' ' '." Slight Scattered flash floods possibleaill a¢s ar°raa LwN2wade r..e.d oricoltw,goods m..ry.tl r,i m� Level .,.n..r.dra,gar-..r.e.rda ,.+. .m ° d te1Berate ' 1. Leah enemy,.._. aura eV,p.crw.ern y qafinligiiiii High I,„...„'''-aL;;;; 3i.irru;,,,;" c",=!" li�il� Leval 4 �, Level tdage Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday with Milton brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west- central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a rare High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the 1-4 corridor and north towards Ocala and through the Tampa Bay Area today. A Slight to Moderate Risk (level 2-3 of 4) for Flash Flooding spreads across much of North and Central Florida and into Southwest Florida. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extends through the Southern Peninsula. Coastal locations along the West Coast experienced flooding (both tidal and rainfall) due to Major Hurricane Helene, and any coastal or low- lying areas will remain vulnerable to additional rounds of rainfall. Heavy rainfall rates will also be a concern over already saturated and vulnerable soils; ponding water and instances of flooding will be possible, especially throughout the urban and poor drainage/low-lying areas in the Florida Peninsula. A rare High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Floodinc is maintained along the eastern 1-4 corridor and through the Space Coast Thursday with a Slinht I Moderate Risk (level 2-3 of 4) for Flash Flooding extending along the 1-4 corridor towards Tampa, northward into Northeast Florida, and southward through Melbourne as Milton makes its way off the Florida East Coast. EpicRGENev iGf cst Flood FDE '.tOKTHEGGOEPa From the National Weather Service (NWS) 1 (W.fA..AA l HOLMES ii I JACK SGNMI (], Ito u SAH1A RO SA>A�AgA Egl In Crt•'��01 WASHINGTON GADS DEN =f ..; DI ,..4DI5ON HAMILTON ,' CALHOUN/ LEON IMAM $OIIVIIIe BAY' L,_ BAKER LIBERTY ICE,d T fl dD f.WpNULL4 SV WANNEE''•Y� FOfSI TAYLOR UNION Coastal Nassau Duval Clay Bradford LAFAYETTE BRADF CLAY ORD (�1 F0.AN NLIH ryy JOHNS .. GILCMRIST DIXIE •alm Coast St. Johns Putnam Alachua Levy FLAGLER MO MEM Marion Flagler Volusia Lake MUM =in =C° CII=113 1 Sumter Citrus Hernando Pasco DM= BREVARD [ISMF °Ielbou11e Pinellas Hillsborough Polk Seminole A HIL SBOROUGN MO 1 Ba, RIVER Orange Brevard Osceola Indian River ort St r Em=m, rid110313 cIe 4 54RASOTA DESOTOMain St. Lucie Okeechobee Martin Highlands CHARLOTTE West Palm ;each 114:33 PALM BEACH Hardee Manatee Sarasota DeSoto Ian` Coral I _ :Ora Eaton Flood Watches remain in effect for BROW ARD''Bea pano c Charlotte Glades Lee Hendry the Florida Peninsula, spanning from , laml Northeast Florida and all throughout MONROEMIAMIDADE Collier '.r1 the Peninsula the following counties: 113 •', rG,t,@RGENtY cRivera � urren orecasConditions o��FDEo , / Op 714E From the National Weather Service •.� '_ �' �vy �_ -� ' A potentially significant riverine flood event looks to unfold along several West-Florida, .`t.... • ' ;�--: , . A °- "� M. -f► Central Florida, and Northeast Florida rivers, creeks/streams, and waterways as -r" `� % • o ; widespread moderate to major flooding is forecast. Some historic riverine crests are '• • ` • •o• r � 4 1' possible for West-Central Florida rivers. - i o r o�.. ---- - •elm Coast Major Flood Stage is forecast for the following rivers: Myakka River (Myakka River State 1 Q z�* l Park), Manatee River (Myakka Head), Little Manatee River (Wimauma), Peace River • • r (SR-60 Bartow & Zolfo Springs), Alafia River (Lithia Pinecrest & Riverview), Hillsborough River (Zephyrhills), Cypress Creek (Worthington Gardens), Anclote River ( ), St. r ri,e Johns River (Astor) I I. Moderate Flood Stage is forecast for the following rivers: St. Johns River (Deland & = Lakeland ■ ` i )`mom Lake Harney), Withlacoochee River (Holder, Croom, and US-301 Trilby), Hillsborough Forecast Flood Stage -- River (Morris Bridge), Peace River (Arcadia), Horse Creek (Arcadia) ` fMI • •_� ` rtSL Lude Minor Flood star is forecast for the following rivers: Jorth Fork & South Fork of Black p .4 Creek, Fisheating Creek (Palmdale), St. Johns River (Sanford), Withlacoochee River L Current Flood Stage F (JS-41 Dunnellon), Santa Fe River (Three Rivers Estates, Fort White, O'leno State Park, -- & Worthington Springs) o`�`ayo a y��e Spr,g1 o _ Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of a"" catastrophic and life-threateningflash and urban floodingalongwith moderate to major Below Flood � � p 1 I Action Level river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase I Minor Flood ,im .'Pa`k r the overall flood threat. O D Moderate Flood ■ ■ Major Flood o'rvTe7,,r' G�.f'' For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center. :a�?hl Part , jha roe FOUO — For Government Official Use Only 0%1 R .RiverFlood Warnin s N.,..." From the National Weather Service River Gauge El County(ies) Affected . Current Level I Crest Level . Record Level. Status . Crest Day. Warning Expires Alafia River at Riverview near US-301 Hillsborough _ Below: 2.99 ft Major: 11.30 ft 9.40 ft Rising (Tidal) 10-Oct 1532 EDT 10-Oct Alafia River at Lithia Pinecrest Road at Lithia Hillsborough Below: 8.44 ft Major: 21.80 ft 28.50 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice Anclote River near Elfers at Little Road Pasco Below: 12.87 ft Major: 25.90 ft 27.70 ft Steady 11-Oct Until Further Notice cypress Creek at SR-54 Pasco Minor: 8.61 ft Major: 15.00 ft 13.80 ft Rising 12-Oct Until Further Notice Fisheating Creek at Palmdale Glades Action: 6.21 ft Minor: 7.60 ft 12.40 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills Hillsborough Below: 3.83 ft Major: 16.50 ft 15.30 ft Falling 11-Oct Until Further Notice Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge Hillsborough Below: 28.28 ft Moderate: 35.70 ft a 34.70 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR-72 DeSoto Action: 10.73 ft Moderate: 15.40 ft I 21.20 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US-301 Hillsborough Below: 7.43 ft Major: 19.40 ft 20.10 ft Falling 11-Oct Until Further Notice Manatee River near Myakka Head at SR-64 _ Manatee Below: 7.34 ft Major: 17.50 ft - 20.90 ft Steady 10-Oct Until Further Notice Myakka River at Myakka River State Park Sarasota _ Minor: 7.09 ft - - . • • 12.80 ft Steady 13-Oct Until Further Notice North Fork Black Creek near Middleburg Clay _ Below: 5.35 ft Minor: 16.30 ft _ 27.90 ft Falling 11-Oct 0930 EDT 11-Oct South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms Clay Below: 4.88 ft Minor: 14.70 ft 29.40 ft Rising 11-Oct 2300 EDT 11-Oct Peace River at SR-60 Bartow Polk Below: 7.00 ft Major: 11.10 ft Rising 13-Oct Until Further Notice Peace River at Zolfo Springs Hardee Below: 12.32 ft Major: 22.10 ft 27.20 ft Rising 11-Oct Until Further Notice Peace River at SR-70 Arcadia DeSoto Action: 10.10 ft Moderate: 15.80 ft 23.70 ft Steady 13-Oct Until Further Notice Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates Columbia, Gilchrist, Minor: 18.32 ft Minor: 20.40 ft 33.40 ft Rising 14-Oct Until Further Notice Suwannee Santa Fe River at O'leno State Park Alachua, Columbia Below: 39.34 ft Minor: 44.40 ft 57.10 ft Steady 13-Oct Until Further Notice Santa Fe at Worthington Springs _ Alachua, Bradford, Union Below: 54.73 ft Minor: 59.30 ft 71.20 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice St. Johns River at Astor Volusia, Lake Minor: 2.92 ft Majo 4.70 ft Rising 10-Oct Until Further Notice Withlacoochee River at US-41 Dunellon Citrus, Levy Below: 28.01 ft r: 29.50 ft 33.00 ft Steady 12-Oct Until Further Notice Withlacoochee River near Holder Cirtus Below: 6.53 ft Moderate: 9.90 ft 13.30 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice Withlacoochee River at Croom Pasco, Sumter Below: 7.20 ft Moderate: 10.80 ft 15.20 ft Rising TBD Until Further Notice Withlacoochee River at US-301 Trilby Hernando, Pasco Below: 9.10 ft Moderate: 16.10 ft 20.40 ft Steady TBD Until Further Notice FOUO - For Government Official Use Only Last Updated: 0630 EDT 9-Oct toItGENty i IonaRivers oMonitor1 �k� cs sTHE GO'~ai;' From the National Weather Service River Gauge El County(ies) Affected . Current Level' Crest Level 0 Record Level Status I. Crest Day. Warning Expires Alapaha River near Jennings Columbia Moderate: 87.75 ft N/A 93.30 ft Steady N/A No Warning Issued Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam Putnam Moderate: 6.51 ft N/A 9.70 ft Steady N/A No Warning Issued Ocklawaha River at Moss Bluff Marion Moderate: 45.48 fa N/A N/A Steady N/A No Warning Issued Santa Fe River near Fort White Columbia, Gilchrist Below: 21.41 ft Minor: 24.20 ft 35.40 ft Steady 15-Oct No Warning Issued St. Johns River near Deland Lake, Volusia Below: 3.20 ft ,dETETFi.IlI.Xim 6.30 ft Steady TBD No Warning Issued St. Johns River near Sanford Seminole, Volusia Below: 3.78 ft Minor: 6.20 ft 9.00 ft Steady TBD No Warning Issued St. Johns River above Lake Harney Seminole, Volusia Action: 6.09 ft Moderate: 9.80 f 12.70 ft Rising TBD No Warning Issued FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Last Updated: 0630 EDT 9-Oct 10...„.. soa ero ica orn a oes c.cTM From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Highlighted Area:Florida Last Updated:Oct 0920240700 AM CDT Highlighted Area Florida Last Updated:Oct 0920247242 AM CDT Severe Weather Outlook valid Until:Oct tO zoza 07oD AM CDT Severe Weather Outlook t valid Until:Oct 77 zaza 07oD AM CDT ;; ,4/ . Wednesday, October 09, 2024 Thursday, October 10, 2024 Pensacola Pensacola. . " ^Jacksonville __--- a Tallahassee � �__-- �Tallahasscc—S �� ,. o .Jacksonville ..�� y �� Des[in . __._-i.l �� yes in• ,• _----.--�,0_i Panama City• Panama City O Palm Coast \O Palm Coast G inesville \`Daytona Beach 'nesville\ ;Daytona Beach Orlando ♦ O1rlando \1/4‘21:== . f:Cape Canaveral / Tampa ) /P 'Melbourne t J '�r elbourne 4.—Okeechobee Ft.Pierce Okeechobee Il Ft.Pierce Sarasota Sarasota Ft.Myers '. West Palm Beach Ft.Myers.' West Palm Beach~ yilia\ Ft.Lauderdale r Ft.Lauderdale e Naples Naplesv Miami • ea 1 L 4► _/ num �Marathon nORR Marathon 7 < f . Ke�WeS1 [5]High Risk T . . Ke�WeS1 *04 141 Moderate Risk ,, [5'J High Risk ,� WO Moderate Risk [3]Enhanced Risk _, 3]Enhanced Risk E27 Slight Risk 2 7 Slight Risk eanonal wean,,,sem« a•Honal wean,,,service Storm Prediction Center am Marginal Risk storm preamH<n c<nter 611 Marginal Risk a[psa/www.zpcno<e.gov 111 O Thunderstorms Iapsa/www.zpcno<e.pov Thunderstorms i There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather between the 1-4 corridor and Lake Okeechobee into Southwest Florida today with a and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending northward towards Gainesville throughout the day as several tropical tornadoes will be possible within Milton's outer rain bands. A strong torn? 10 or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, during peak heating hours of the day, likely between the 1-4 corridor and Lake Okeechobee. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is maintained across South Florida and along lower portions of the Central-East Coast Thursday as trailing outer bands may continue to move through as Milton moves off the East Coast of Florida. ITornado Watches and Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant. FoERGENC►, p� C N � a ummar EGOJta�O? FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Major Hurricane Milton: • As of 8:00 AM EDT, Milton is located about 250 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving northeast at 16 mph. • A northeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and east on Thursday and Friday. • On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the West-Central Florida Coast late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the East Coast of Florida into the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. • Milton is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. • This storm is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane (Category 4 hurricane)when it reaches the West-Central Coast of Florida tonight. • Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back • side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. • Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. • Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Florida Outlook: • Hurricane Warning: St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, Marion, Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Lake, Volusia, Hernando, Seminole, Orange, Brevard, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Indian River, St. Lucie, Okeechobee, Highlands, Hardee, Manatee, Sarasota, DeSoto, Charlotte, Lee • Hurricane Watch: Nassau, Duval, Clay, Martin, Glades, Hendry, Collier, Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee • Tropical Storm Warning: Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Jefferson, Taylor, Suwannee, Dixie, Lafayette, Columbia, Gilchrist, Baker, Union, Bradford, Alachua, Clay, Nassau, Duval, Martin, Glades, Hendry, Palm Beach, Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe (Mainland & Keys), Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee • Tropical Storm Watch: Inland Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton • Storm Surge Warning: Levy/Citrus County Line through Mainland Monroe; East Coast through Brevard County • Storm Surge Values (Peak Forecast): • Anna Marie Island (Manatee County)to Boca Grande (Charlotte): 10-15' • Anclote River (Pasco/Pinellas County Line)through Tampa Bay: 8-12' • Boca Grande (Charlotte/Lee County Line)to Bonita Beach (Lee/Collier County Line), including Charlotte Harbor: 8-12' • Aripeka (Hernando/Pasco County Line)to the Anclote River (Pasco/Pinellas County Line) and Bonita Beach (Lee/Collier County Line) to Chokoloskee (Collier/Monroe County Line): 5-8' • Chokoloskee to Flamingo— Mainland Monroe: 3-5' • Yankeetwon (Levy/Citrus County Line)to Aripeka (Hernando/Pasco County Line) and Dry Tortugas: 2-4' • Florida-Georgia state line to Sebastian Inlet (Brevard/Indian River County Line), including the St. Johns River: 3-5' The next briefing packet will be issued on Wednesday afternoon. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. EpicRGENty� Of CA _ .* a � u rn rn a r AktOFrNEG044. FOUO — For Government Official Use Only Florida Outlook: • There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. • Tropical storm-force conditions will develop this afternoon and evening along the West Florida coastline and spread eastward across the Florida Peninsula through the overnight and early mornings hours on Thursday. • Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida. • Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the Peninsula as Milton cross the region. • Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida this evening, well ahead of Milton, with rainfall more directly tied to Milton expected late tonight and Wednesday. Widespread rainfall totals near 6-12" with locally higher totals in excess of 18" are possible across portions of the Peninsula. • Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday with Milton brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major riverine flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. • High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked along the 1-4 corridor and northward through the Nature Coast for Wednesday as Milton approaches the west coast of Florida and moves onshore. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) spreads across much of North and Central Florida Wednesday with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) extending into portions of the Northwestern Peninsula and into South Florida. • High Risk (level 4 of 4) for Flash Flooding is maintained along the eastern 1-4 corridor and through the Space Coast Thursday with a Slight to Moderate Risk (level 2-3 of 4) for Flash Flooding extending along the 1-4 corridor towards Tampa, northward into Northeast Florida, and southward through Melbourne as Milton makes its way off the Florida East Coast. • Flood Watches extend from Northeast Florida through Central Florida and into Southwest Florida. • Rivers, creeks/streams, and waterways across North and Central Florida are already running above normal for this time of year due to widespread heavy rainfall from Hurricane Debby. River Flood Warnings have been issued for many North, Central, and West Florida rivers as a potentially significant riverine flood event may unfold with Milton's forecast heavy rainfall. • Computer models are currently suggesting there is potential for widespread moderate to major flooding across West-Central Florida waterways, as well as portions of the St. Johns and inland quicker-response river/stream systems across Central Florida. • Outer bands moving onshore may bring several tropical tornadoes across much of the Peninsula throughout the day today as Milton approaches the west coast of Florida and makes landfall tonight; A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, during peak heating hours of the day, likely between the 1-4 corridor and Lake Okeechobee. • The Storm Prediction Center(SPC) is outlooking an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather between the 1-4 corridor and Lake Okeechobee into Southwest Florida today with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Severe Weather and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending northward towards Gainesville. • Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant. • The potential for isolated tropical tornadoes will continue in trailing outer bands across south Florida and along lower portions of the Central-East Coast Thursday as Milton moves off the East Coast of Florida (Marginal Risk for Severe Weather— level 1 of 5). • A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10' of greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. The next briefing packet will be issued on Wednesday afternoon. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. /aaGencr� pf� N (EMEe Na C�j +,', O R I D AF�rI � ° � Tropical Update ��'�'Rz�) OA,A,CFOF THE GO�a� FOUO — For Government Official Use Only 04. �NfF 1�� Created by : Caitlyn Gillespie , Deputy State Meteorologist Caitlyn . GillespieIem . myflorida . com State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of emergency Management Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topicid=SERTMetTropics. Other reports available for subscription are available at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?preferences=true 4EATgF KeyMessages 57 Southeast Georgia & Northeast Florida Major Hurricane Milton Impacts Today through Thursday Night • Deteriorating Weather Conditions through the day • Peak of Local Milton Impacts Tonight through Thursday Afternoon • Potential Hazards: Storm Surge, Damaging Winds, Flooding Rainfall • Greatest Impact Areas: North-central FL, Northeast FL, Coastal SE GA, & Local Marine Waters Marine & Surf Zone Hazards Through The Weekend • Surf Zone: High Rip Current Risk & High, Rough Surf Extended Duration of River Flooding for St. Johns River Basin 10/9/2024 11 :32 AM Major Hurricane Milton Impact Overview for Northeast FL & Southeast GA AL 11"' ,r Note:The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show +`"'"f the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. ;.- (!alit* Key Messages tot PA $ .' 4' IL '" OH - Milton im acts across NE FL & SE GA Today through Thursda Y p Y g AKY w� Threat of deadly storm surge, flash flooding & damaging winds 8 AM Mon TN NC 35N 0(41Sun Local Impacts 0GM sat MS AL GA • OLyi]Fri B�^^�8 s Dangerous Beach & Marine conditions this week. " $`A�Tl;u S -, Damaging Wind Risk this afternoon through Thursday © S g� g g -, Storm Surge Flooding Atlantic Coast & St. Johns River x .8 PM Thu 8 PM Fri -, Flooding Rainfall Risk NE FL 2"" \•;t AM Weclt , ,me' -, River Flooding: NE FL Rivers, Prolonged St. Johns Flooding 20NH . . 1 - --4 Safety Recommendations 90W !-, 85W 80W ` 751V 70W" P`l -65W . 60W 55W 50W Hurricane Milton Current information: x Forecast positions: -, Hunker down & remain sheltered bymiddaytoday Wednesday October 09,2024 Center location 25.8 N 84.3 W •Tropical Cyclone Q Post Potential TC 11 AM EDT Advisory 18 Maximum sustained wind 145 mph Sustained winds: D<39 mph -, Heed the guidance of local officials. NWS National Hurricane Center Movement NE at 17 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate: —) Monitor for Flash Flood & Tornado Warnings C > Day 1-5 Hurricane Trop Strn MHirr L:_i iu M lrop Stm Hurricane Tr uu Sim Nt‘EAThF ��1.49T NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - 1...Z44 JACKSONVILLE y_-,� • _ Prepare for these Potential Impacts — RISK ASSESSMENT faf y`"%' Major Hurricane Milton WIND THREAT RAINFALL THREAT SURGE THREAT TORNADO THREAT h J 4. / Alma Jesup Jesup Jesup Jesup Douglas I Douglas Alma Alma Alma g Douglas Douglas Waycross t, Waycross Waycross r f 1= tSt. y ` t5t. Waycross St. 75' Homerville ) 5 uel,r: 95 ` 75 Homerville Simons 'Simons Simons ,fl 95 75+ Homerville 95 5 Homerville 95, Folkst.17‘1114 Folkston 11.,;, Folkston i 4 Folkston Statenville iftill% Statenville Statenville -1 Statenville pli!Fif a Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach ITaylor Taylor �ITaylor • 10 t- r t^ (1 10 Jaill�Li, • Live ` Live errOak Oak ' Live i10/ Jacksonville �•= Lake Lake Oak Lake (i' City City I. City • 111 75 75 }l / 75 Kingsley ill- 751 Kingsley \ ?tinegustine 1Atustine St.Au:•;,;,.- • .l ��i =:nu_ r ';JIlldIV Gainesville 1i Gainesville 11 • Palm Viln p t IreWelaka Coast aSt •I ,J • t s li.r Ocaf •� a .� LLB_ ffMore than 110 mph Extreme Flooding Rain Surge 9 ft or more above ground Tornado Outbreak I 7A0111031k Major Flooding Rain d "WNWamlint Tornadoes 58 - 73 mph Moderate Flooding Rain Surge 3 ft or more above ground Several Tornadoes 39 - 57 mph Localized Flooding Rain Surge 1 ft or more above ground Few Tornadoes Less than 39 mph Little to No Flooding Rain Little to No Storm Surge Tornadoes not expected Last Updated: 10/9/2024 11 :35 AM National Weather Service — Jacksonville, FL Hurricane & Tropical Storm Wind Threat Key Message & Timing ., . , iir 46, , - Peak winds Tonight through Thursday Hazards -, Warning = Winds Expected within 36 hrs Hurricane • • Warning lilmt-t, - Hurricane Force Winds >_ 74 mph Tropical Storm Warning _ { Tropical Storm Force Winds >_ 39 mph yr •,. St. Hurricane • Simons Watches = Potential for these winds Watch tom._ It Ir,pical�strir rJjt=ii ston • '/'1irl'_ Advi:;ur Potential Impacts Taylo_ Live 10 Jacksonville Widespread downed trees & powerlines, power Oak LakCie outages & damage to structures & mobile homes. 5. Kingsley Saint �� - Most vulnerable wind impact areas: Augustine Gainesville Suwannee Valley, Marion County & coastal NE FL Palm `s Welaka Coast --i Saturated ground will cause trees to fall more easily. Ocala �Enrye .�� 9„ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE fV z JACKSONVILLE y'`�� ISSUED: Wednesday, October 9, 2024 11:32 AM o oFlooding Rain Threat TURN AROUND 3 ■ DON'T DROWN! w Storm Total Rainfall Forecast Flood Watch Area Today through Thu Night Key Messages & Timing iiii� _ -> The most widespread rainfall is expected this 1.1010119�F 1 Jesup afternoon through Thursday i30 la�� Alma Douglas Douglas Best chance for Flash Flooding will across -15" —10" 11 . 'i.�lt•',. 'S° Marion, St. Johns, Flagler & Putnam counties • w St. Waycross St. —6" ' , "69 Simons Simons S rlu , Homerville 95I 3 }•rJ 95, il Folkston Potential Impact 0.5-1" 1.5" •:iivi Statenville p Fernandina Beach I Fernandina Beach .- Flash flooding of urban, low-lying, coastal & + _1 ^fir J' 11 r, . _ , . Taylor poor drainage areas 0.5" 0. r tF. r 10, i u Live 1110 Jacksonville d .. Oak Lake -- 0.25" 1,:, � � .. ,� ~� 1. ` 4-6" c'75 . Recommended Actions Kingsley 0.1" - Iv 75 1. Saint Saint 15- Augustine i� Augustine Gai 8-10" Gainesvi -, If in a flood prone area, move to high ground 4-6' Palm pliwo:. Welaka Coast Welaka PalmCoast Monitor for FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS 4-6" -, Be readyto move to higher ground 9 0.01" Ocala Ocala Nal 4 Rrye Q.,.�9m iO C NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE y,"a' 'f,:iII1lAT►TMI7TMIF.TIFIT71T ialleIlla E I Cicial A Storm Surge Threat Key Messages & Timing STORM SURGE WARNING LIFE-THREATENING SURGE EXPECTED -, Potential for Life-Threatening Storm Surge Inundation Jesup Tonight & Thursday A _) Storm Surge Inundation Forecast .SS 3-5 FT Atlantic coasts & Intracoastal Waterway Simons 2-4 FT St. Johns River Basin, Lake George & Crescent Lake 95 -, Extended duration St. Johns Basin River Flooding likely given Folkston heavy rainfall across central FL (headwaters) 1. FernandinaBeach for Actions 0 Jacksonville -•Itr. IA Kingsley Follow evacuation orders of local officials. Saint -> Never venture into flood waters. Augustine ille - Move vulnerable property to higher ground. Palm -> Be ready to vertically evacuate if surge infiltrates your shelter. Welaka Coast Ocala sr\ F i ' NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE fb� J� JACKSONVILLE, FL ISSUED: Wednesday, October 9, 2024 11:32 AM ,10.A Tye _ - T River Flooding Status & Forecast cp — � ►1 r mob* .. ')iiiippy Southeast Georgia & Northeast Florida Rivers https://water.noaa.gov/?wfo=jax *,orx"i.. �� "u..z"f4 ��Tktp� `� SERFC River Conditions SERFC ALERT �/j Valid: 10/09/2024 @ 11:24 AM `p'1y� Valid: 10/09/2024 @ 11:24 AM at� FMI OE ^'p �FMII N f . �aj �� ., ❑...c. ❑ " A ___,-,:v} 1j1ci: 7 ‘ ., 611nolli 0 ,... . DM L* El 17 0 • ■ l:'' "L--- 411.1 El Ell (lc ‘ B 117 . . ) 'El*. 1[ ❑ ' II ,.... ..rs CI oitur..0 '.=.0 , ."-- 1:1 '13•E 13.. b .s",--'' / lal ' — rC❑ci °a, r■l .'VOW 48 Hr Rainfall Forecast ,�� G a �� 1.0in - 3.0in gf ., ❑❑ ts, �� MI ti Sin lev t, `ti. p ❑ Below Flood '� ❑ `ay f °� ° ❑ 0 0}, L] Action Level F°t d° ° ❑ Minor Flood L Minor Flood • ■ ■ Moderate Flood INModerate Flood Created at 11:24 AM on 10/09/24 �" El ■ Major Flood Created at 11:24 AM on 10/09/24 • Major Flood 6.by the Southeast River Forecast Center _ — by the Southeast River Forecast Center r 10/9/2024 11 :32 AM Hurricane Preparedness weather.gov/hurricane Stay Protected During Storms d Stay in your safe places from 828 water & wind AHave a way to get weather alerts and forecast updates Keep in mind that impacts can be felt far from the coast laz Listen to local officials & avoid travel unless ordered to evacuate