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Home My WebLink About15.c FYI EDC Q2 Presentation Slides IC CLAY FLORIDA Economic Development Corporation POSSIBILITY FLOWS I JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE 2nd Quarterly Luncheon Presentation for 2025 N. i.c. iel f _/ ki4 'w-Stm* r: r i • di' !77'r '��IF , b,� 17 .�w-taiwi,.,.. Alter --;.----- AI gralligirilithL4',c, ..to . . ---- i______- �v/; ILL L , ' `, ( ,.._. '1 V 3 �r •• , i. A,� 'r •� \ ii `_ 40 N' 1 FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT CO. 11 i .l _. '�Ihkif POWER DEPTP .- �� j' ' - � ,• li. -=§±.: �11 miA7°� •- , 7 ick.: 4 — . - -- ,. . vi.... _ . , - '' t, • _.: za 1 "r - .' MIAM'IFIA .� I' J /,le; . I •i. j / � ' Fyn - 11 j 4. iI ,1 afi -1 \ I . . - - . 14 ,R,-.1 ,T -- , .alk-' , , -,4111 ar • • IPIPIL i=1 I_Prelielly- L-,o@J_v,_171-filii--Jv IFIbiitir4 r'*;) ifibri e. t ',.)Iii-Pru_71-4-y eh . iis imik. AIM Carol Saviak Clay Florida Economic Development Corporation External Affairs Manager May 29, 2025 Florida Power & Company Light �� 9 p Y �� FPL IC CLAY FLORIDA Economic Development Corporation POSSIBILITY FLOWS I JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE 2nd Quarterly Luncheon Presentation for 2025 DEMOGRAPHIC DROUGHT The Rising Storm Building a Future-Ready Workforce to Withstand the Looming Labor Shortage ghi 1/4 0 \: � L Lightcast .1,1;.. 4 ` g - t ��; Future-Ready Workforce Collection .w THE '\ Lightcast DEMOGRAPHIC DROUGHT DEMOGRAPHIC Going to The Rising Storm dothe Building a Future-Ready Workforce to Withstand DROUGHT the Looming Labor Shortage Work? • How the approaching sansdomlc' will transform the labor market .4' \ s'JIM for the rest of our lives a..+J. + , ' —'4i,411 • 11111 #. I e ---- ...„..--1,, !II; ' --,.:..': '' • 1 -- I e a•te•- ig/I) ''? .--- "1*--"'" 7>41. AMERICA'S DECADES-LONG PRIORITIZATION OF THE 4-YEAR DEGREE HAS PUSHED A 4 • to htCClSt NEW GENERATION AWAY FROM THE SKILLED _ 9 TRADES. WHAT CAN INDUSTRIES THAT NEED '�•••+'^=^d^..0^, a.l Lk1Kcost •SANSDEMIC:sans-without.domrc-people SKILLED-TRADE WORKERS DO ABOUT IT? !i, "Eye-opening and timely" "Masterfully connects macroeconomic trends with practical implications for business leaders" "A compelling, data-driven warning on the future labor shortage" c • D 2025 STEViE� "An exceptional thought leadership WINNER campaign" AMERICAN "Demonstrates exceptional foresight BUSINESS AWARDS' and data-driven insights" THOUGHT LEADERSHIP AMPAIGN OF THE YEAR "Communicates urgency without sensationalism and is deeply aligned The Rising Storm: Building a Future-Ready Workforce with Lightcast's core mission." to Withstand the Looming Labor Shortage "Positions Lightcast as a trusted voice `L Lightcast on the future of work" Newsweek The lctti ilork Lima _. -t- *100: � ` .- Media Cove raae � Y �� &°°m�� America's Population Time Think Twice About Touting US Faces a Deficit of 6 Bomb This Economy Million Workers in Less Than of "The Rising Storm". aDecade ■■■■s.p i��■m■.. Inc ( j AMOS. ,I VOA ppY a 0110 ' Vn LhcAeufIlorkLime Newsweek '' Ono . .1 '. l i r A looming'demographic More Than 4 Million Older Companies attitudes cliff' Workers Have Left the towards layoffs are changing Inc. �I O� Workforce Since 2020 -here's why. NBC NEWS W IIL trs,-� *� Forbes Forbes et NBC NEWS r l 11;. I • Builders Warn Deportation The Labor Shortage Is Not The Rising Storm:Business Would Drive Up Home Costs Going Away Leaders navigate America's Labor Shortage WV og vi t . . .and manymore -,...4__ fit'. ,� ' �� • /, , .. / i WorkingNation Work 0 Shift it. ill The U.S.is facing its largest The Great Shrinking of the Labor Shortage Projections AGENDA 1 . Conditions Forming (past) 2. The Outer Bands (present) 3. Landfall (future) 4. Preparing for the Storm • • -------- ;,v -- r • .t.. WORKFORCE PAST 0 G. Qs' y. I to I Conditions Forming: 7 . ) A ' A The Baby Boomers' Labor Market 0 Pr" 0 I P 1 ) 1 4 0i . 1,1 'SIM' The workforce grew rapidly for two main reasons : The US birthrate swung upwards after WWII and peaked in 1947. US Birth Rates(per 1,000 Population) 30 1947 Births: Birth Rate(per 1,000): 3,817,000 26.6 20 • Birth rate was extremely high 10 From 1950 through 2000,female labor force participation rose consistently; reaching over 60%u by the mid-1990s. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate,Women 20 Years and Over • Women entered the 0 60% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 workforce in droves Source:National Center for Heath Statistics 40% 1996 60%%o i e 20% 0 THE RISING STORM 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics Higher birth rates and women entering doubled our workforce growth College enrollment jumped 100% from 1965 to 1975 and continued to soar for women 42.5M �7Ni 1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2010 Workforce increase by 20 year period Source:Statista 2021 THE RISING STORM Boomer Mindsets Workers "My highest political priorities are creating "Higher education will jobs and decreasing help me get the job unemployment." I F . E I want." "I do not want , to' :" "I will move to get the immigrants coming ' best job for me." to steal jobs." Y *t .006LA { "I need to weigh the '.`��;-:`; � � g "I need to look out for benefit of a family number one more I against its cost to my than I prioritize career." company loyalty." Ill 4 Boomer Mindsets Employers -, . ' ... , "When I'm hiring, I know I can expect �' plenty of applicants, so I can limit the "I do not need to take on the field by creating detailed job 1/ ''% di ,r' ��i ,,� burden of training, because descriptions with highly specific I can take workers that qualifications and degree come `preloaded' from other requirements." • jobs with the skills and ,u;,t�) •■ abilities I need." "It's a hassle to sort through too many w w applicants, so I will screen out as many t o as possible before the interview ' (110 i ._ w "What we pay is what we pay. process. j If one worker doesn't like it, I / can find someone else." "We can afford to lay people off during slow cycles at the company." - N A 1 Baby Boomers born: The Silver Tsunami The US workforce soared as the Baby Boomer Generation began. 1946-1964 [Current Ages: 60-78] US population, age 55+ 40M 30M 20M r'N 10M 1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011 2018 The Baby Boomers are now the second-smallest generation in the US labor force. Annual US Labor Force,In Millions The Silver Tsunami 60 • Millenials, (Born 1981-2000) 59.81M has hit shore 50 • Gen X (Born 1965-1980) 51.39M With Boomers heading out of the 40 labor force, they are no longer GenZ (Bornworking, but growing into a huge 29.24M202°' aepenaent population. Baby Boomers 1964) 20 25.1M 10 Silent (Born 1928-1945) 0 • 1.16M 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2023 THE RISING STORM Source:US Census Bureau Current Population Survey;Lightcast Analysis r' 7FF WORKFORCE PRESENT e • u er Bands: Today's Labor Market V The LFPR took a serious hit in 2020 and has • not recovered since. The F:Irst Labor Force Participation Rate Outer Band 64°,° As the pandemic began, The pandemic pushed an accelerator 63% labor force participation pedal down on trends that were plummeted already coming. People have left the labor force Taster than we tnougnt. 62°%0 61% 60% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 g THE RISING STORM We lost 5 million overnighteo le p p Total Adult Population Not in Labor Force 105M ' r v� vJ 100M This change in LFPR represents a loss of I 5 million workers. 95M " • 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 `� Labor participation for older adults dropped sharply during the pandemic. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate,Age 55+ Out of the 5 million people 41% who have left the labor force since 2020, 40% 80% are over the 39% age of 55. 38% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Actual retirements are much more frequent than were projected. Percentage of 16+ Population That Is Retired 20% Actual - - Predicted Boomers are 19% • exiting the labor 18% ' force en masse. 17% ' - 16% • 15% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source:St.Louis Fed On the Economy THE RISING STORM 18M From 2024 to 2032,Increase i US population growth Consumers will outpace labor force , _..-)..,:, ` , - by growth nearly r 4, l -f 4.-, _-'l�- Yi 'r - t0 1 I . V r, CI ,..5M (ill\ . ,4, .. , _.• Illir Increase in r ( 1 Lip:ILProducers US Population US Labor Force THE RISING STORM Argr Growth, 2024-32 Change,2024-32 Every year, there are fewer working-age people to support the older population. Ratio of 65+ Population to 25-64 Population Workforce entrance 25-64 65 or Older imbalance 4.9 4.5 1 4•2I. Projected impending2.9 2.5 2.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024 2034 2044 2054 Source:Congressional Budget Office THE RISING STORM dr Th eDilemma The educated labor force and the disappeardriut of men .., ;:k';'-11'. _ k. � p;ori _ - A Prime-age male workforce participation has plummeted . LFPR,Men Ages 25-54 100 Labor force participation for men age 25-54 fell sharply as soon as Millennials reached that age range. 95 90 85 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 dr Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics The labor market toll of addiction SUBSTANCE ABUSE Deaths: Addiction and abuse: 100,0004 7 M overdose deaths per year. = people are out of the labor force due to addiction. 70% of overdose deaths are from opioids. - ; of these are due to opioids. 1 i n 232 M overdose deaths were in construction and missed work days due to alcohol alone—the equivalent extraction occupations, which are 96% male of 112,000 full-time workers missing for an entire year. and almost 70% prime-age. The majority of drug-related deaths and addictions occur among prime-age men without a college degree. The labor market toll of incarceration INCARCERATION ill 1 .9 IVY , IR people are behind are prime-age men (25 to 54). bars in the US. The number of prime-age men behind bars roughly equals the city ' . .1.. populations of Atlanta, Miami, and people behind bars are Minneapolis combined. 1 there for a drug offense. 10 FV :, -.l /o of all men in the US will ' _ serve time behind bars .:� <r J x i in their lifetime. til = • �+ - _. -Iii L± iri>�- y -- _ `6- '-•� i c i q Current Economy The unemployment rate for production occupations remains at historical lows , 15% /\( 10% \/\1\---\hiA 5% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: BLS,CPS There are just 1 .1 M unemployed people in the U.S. whose last job was in production or warehousing/logistics. In the range of their lowest numbers in recent recorded history. Many occupations in the skilled trades rely on a workforce that is over 90% male. Male by Occupation (4-digit SOC), 2024 \jar, t, vw Jr . Automotive \ �#` elf‘ , • Plum• '' Technicians ` _ Carpenters 9 / +-s ma 98°/. , 9 , r✓7,'o '/o •y J A A I fri-iii71.11_,Y , ----,/ 4 lit Construction - Highway Maintenanc- `* Equipment Operators 4 _ Electricians Workers i`', _ /— l Oli 97% p'wlit 9 6% -- - __ I.Line Installers k - � 1 ,, - . 1 and Repairers .;.i Machinists; Welders44.. f 9# THE RISING STORM The US is increasingly 36M highly educated ■ Associate's Degree 63% Participation Rate In 1992, the 25+ labor force was split almost 50-50 degreed vs not. 9M I 65M Now it is 69% degreed Less than a High School Diploma 48% Participation Rate Bachelor's Degree and higher vs 31 % not. 73% Participation Rate 36M High School Graduates 57% Participation Rate Data shows adults 25 years and older Source:BLS,CPS Table A-4 43M 101M With no college education With college education Since 2019, all of the US labor force net growth has come from people with a bachelor's degree. Change in US Labor Force, age 25+ Workers with a bachelor's degree Workers without a bachelor's degree Source: Lightcast Analysis THE RISING STORM Roughly 60% of all open jobs do not require a college degree. cyo of current employment and job titles by education needed Education level needed % of current jobs % of titles High school diploma or less Bachelor's degree or higher 30% 41 % The war for talent is on (especially hourly) Amazon increases hourly pay by $1.50, adds free Prime membership Home Depot says it will spend $1 for thousands of workers billion to give hourly workers a raise With this move,the e•commerce giant's average hourly pay tops$22,below the •�•�•••• •••,.,a,...ae.r.., a...r.., . •..„,•,........., industry average and what many of its employees demand. �rS,COMPANY NLW'. Costco's Average Hourly Kroger bolsters work force with almost $800M Wage Is Over $30. Here's The grocery giant continues to invest in workers;81.9 billion has been given to the backbone of operation since 2018 How That Stacks Up Target doubles bonuses for salaried For Amazon Workers,$30 Is the employees as profits surge New S15 O Rwuw audw it 1 e managers and supply-chain operation leaders are among those who will get the bonuses. Walmart,Target,Kroger in'Labor Hoarding'War for Workers Walmart Target.Kroger,and more moor retailers po head-to-head in an escalating 'labor hoarding war over hourly employees Mar a,2023 Can we bring manufacturing back to the US? Police Officer Auto $24.80 CSR Warehouse mechanic Construction $19.02 worker $27.02 Production Equip Driver $18.52 Operator $20.00 Worker $25.05 Construction $20.49 '� Fast food worker counter $30.00 Maintenance $14.95 Worker Admin Asst $27.88 Cooks $21 .48 $18.03 Agricultural Firefighter Worker $27.75 Truck Driver $20.98 Retail sales Janitor $18.77 $29.97 $17.05 SOURCE: Current advertised salaries, Lightcast Millions of critical jobs are filled by people at or near retirement age. Top 10 Occupations (4-Digit SOC) With the Highest Number of Workers Age 55+ Home Health and Personal Care Aides 1,420,205 Laborers and Material Movers 1,361,769 Building Cleaning Workers 1,268,888 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 1,203,173 Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers 1,202,865 Retail Salespersons 1,005,588 General and Operations Managers 900,962 Registered Nurses 848,293 Office Clerks,General 828,834 Bookkeeping,Accounting,and Auditing Clerks 668,309 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Source: Lightcast dr Nearly all of our most posted jobs in the country do not need a college degree. Unique Postings * 191 Registered Nurses 484,990 Retail Salespersons 197,610 Truck Driver 151,536 Retail Supervisors 129,749 Customer Service Reps 125,279 Sales Reps 115,483 t tilt Illi Software Developers =MO 112,053 Other Computer Occs 106,751 Fast Food Workers 102,870 Home Health Aides 100,191 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 THE RISING STORM `i And nursing accounted for only 12% of degrees conferred in 2023 Major Group Bachelors % of total Business, Mgmt, Marketing 384,470 19% vs 19% Business Registered Nurse. 252,879 12°i degrees Social Sciences 140,477 7% Psychology 139,775 7% Biological Sciences 133,654 6% "The study found jobs in Engineering 120,154 6% business and financial IT 117,873 6% operations face the highest displacement risk at 19.9%" Visual & Performing Arts 93,952 5% - SHRM Study on Education 90,819 4% Displacement Comms./Journalism 81 ,671 4% 1 II p tltl•• Y PN tlP wtl •• - P O•i 4 p P tl w w w pP tl tl u w P tl.r w O. a '-' HELp -MItl w w.y i P tl w y- N y tl tl w I MI „�_ww.. {•• i� I ',.:i y - III III Ili il,III rwll• •, �. : - , � , . .�.Ptl▪ III ItI II 11 III ' 141 .1 T- lit iLt. . I- ._ rr.1 _ r„ ,n• l I !:, i III III II III,11▪ w A 9 �. rrw�� ■■ ulu�i� 1_ tlwwu 161E did dl CI - d'.. ' , `.■• �.--.- A e. i' r dl J, I dI dl -�• , ,o•• Yww�a"'t c, �{•'t :�...- dIIL Jl dl d1 YYYi/.a r �, JI Iil IL dl JI • • ti irYww. I■ II�sM� IL dl IL dl III A.ti I III II,dI.i. -` ��• i ■III ? :q.il :■ii II�I III dI Ib IL III • • ~' r ■ III IaliliIt .. • r. G I. 4 a 3.''v ,.r — — kV Jul iiiiili. a? • ,, -. 1 r T�'f I n lI 9 t _. i ■ ■ S.yt '� HELP WANTED 1 j.. �� ,x • i ,,r: •• •�' 1,,7,, ,, n .'� 1./ AI Florida and Clay County labor economic info Florida still seeing population increase but not labor force Florida Population vs Labor Force 20,000,000 12,000,000 19,500,000 11,500,000 Since the end of 2023, 19,000,000 11,000,000 prior to the pandemic, the 18,500,000 18, 00,000 10,500,000 the working age population 17,500,000 , 10,000,000 has grown by 452K, while 17,000,000 950000o the labor force grew by 16,500,000 86K. This is because the 9,000,000 16,000,000 LFPR is on a free fall. 15,500,000 8,500,000 15,000,000 8,000,000 Lf) LC) LO CO CO CO h I- I,- CO CO 00 O) O) 0) O O O N N N N (M CO CO V V LC) N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N a) . . . + a) a+ a. C >+ a) C a+ a) C >+ a) C >+ a) co N N N N N co N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N co N N —Pop —LF Labor force participation falling and much lower than the national average of 62.6. 66 64 Florida is the 5th oldest State by 62 population age. Businesses must 60 be assured that workers are f\VIC\ coming here as The unemployment rate is very low by national standards at 3.6% but 58% well as retirees. Florida has an even bigger problem. To keep unemployment at a healthy level, Florida must continue to bring in people of working age vs retirement. Also, as crackdowns on immigration increase, LFP 54 may continue to fall further CO CO CO CO 0) O - N C000 CO CO N- CO O) 0 x- N CO 10 CO f- I� CO O 0 N- N CO O 6) O) O) O) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N C U > U Q C T 0 0 L 0 0 C U > Q C >, L C U > Q C T 4 8 2 O c(n Q - 3 < 2 LT 4 8 2 O (n Q g < 2 u 4 8 2 O to Q - - 3 Key points MSA Labor Force Unemp. Rate 3/25 Unemp. Rate 2/20 Florida 11 .2M (+50K OTY) 3.7 3.0 Clay County 115K (+800 OTY) 3.6 2.7 The State of Florida currently has around 410K unemployed people but only 34K collecting unemployment. So roughly 1 in 12 vs the national average of 1 in 4!! Current Lightcast data shows about 488K job postings meaning just less than 1 worker for each opening. Clay County saw their labor force surge by nearly 10K from '21 to '24. 120,000 115,000 Clay county is pretty normal demographically, 110,00o not younger or older than the 105,000 national percentages. It is 100,00o a healthy but not dangerously The current unemployment rat: of 3.6% is actually much healthy job 95,000 healthier than back in 2018 an• 2019 when it was in the 2% market. range. The labor force surge helped and the area would be in 90,000 much deeper trouble without it. Cn CL) CI) (0 (0 CO I- N- N- CO CO CO 0) 0) 0) O O O N N N N M CO CO V V LU NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN C >+ Q C >+ Q C >+ Q C >. Q C >+ Q C >+ Q C >. Q C >. Q C >+ Q C Q C C6C6 a) C6 C6 U) CO N C6 CO a) c6 co ) CO m CI C6 m ) U C6 a) c6 co ) C6 m Q) C6 Job postings are hovering in lower territories but stable This is a roughly the same market as it was prior to the pandemic, but unemployment is higher 9F 8K 7.3K 7K / ..... •• • / • 6K • • • .••-• •-•` . . . •-•-•-•-• 5K / . • •, , .• • 4K 3.1 K •-''•-'••'' • 3.3K 3 K .• \.`. \•''_• •.''• •"''•-• ... • • • 2K 1K Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 Jan 2025 -•- Unique Postings What Does Clay Want? A nice mix but lots of front line workers The most posted job title is CSR, then truck drivers, delivery drivers and maintenance Registered Nurses 10K Retail Clerks 4K Retail Supervisors 3K Heavy Truck Drivers 3K Customer Service Reps 3K Medical Managers Food Service Mgrs 1 .5K Secondary Teachers 1 .5K Home Health Aides 1 .4K Fast Food Counter Workers 1 .4K CSR advertised salary is $34K, retail sales $32K Removing top professional roles, wages are elevated Advertised Salary Trend ■■■ A 22.5% 'Alay2022-Apr 2025 6M 1Y 3Y CUSIC $39.8k Median $45K Wages for those everyday people that service the /—/\ local economy have inched up over time. 18,652 Job Postings ii...,,. IIIiIiiuuiiiuiiuiuiiiuuiiii May72 Sep'22 Jan'23 May23 Sep23 Jan24 May24 Sep'24 Jan25 Median Home Listing Price — Clay County, Not Good for Growth FRED —Housing Inventory:Median Listing Price in Clay County,FL 400,000 • 380,000 $377K 360,000 340,000 320,000 300,000 ui 51%!!! 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 201: Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 Jan 2025 Source:Realtor.com via FRED® NOTES: After a significant increase in price back in '21 and '22, Clay has managed to hold at the inflated price despite active home listings now higher than their 2019 levels. To afford a house of that cost, household income needs to be around $100-125K. Median household income in this area is about $86K. Much of Florida has seen significant investments by interests wanting to do short term rentals. Source:realtor.org, realtor.com , I s 1 1 i I I I I i I i I 1 , 4 , , , .* ... . — — _ WORKFORCE FUTURE , • , _ _,- . , .rot anofall, .. . , • A 0 r • : ' - - .. The Decade „. • , . ,,i,:, ..•.:„ _,,_ _.. , , . Ahead s t, , • , „ , ...t.. 1 .. Z. % 1 . I.. . Pk, ._ . WI, 1 _.-.. - _ a• ‘ . e , . . . The BLS projects the US labor force will net only A 2M workers by 2033. New Under-65 Workers New 65+ Workers • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • a • • • • • • • • • • • • • And 3.6M of the growth is • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • expected to be age 65+. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • During that time the 16-24 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • labor force is projected to • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • a • • • • • • • • • • • • • SHRINK by 2M. j • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • a • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • THE RISING STORM Irgr The BLS projects the US labor force will add only e.11VI workers by 2033. New Under-65 Workers New 65+ Workers But remember ALL of • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • our labor force growth • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • in the past 5 years has • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • been among those • • • 4141 • • • • • • 41 • • 40 • • 04 • • • • • • • • • • • • • 041404141404104141404141410041 • 441404141404141414041414141 workers with BA. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Even if 1/3 of these new • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • under-65workers has • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Tess than a BA, that's • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • only1 .8 M • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • or • just177K/yr • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • through2033. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • BLS projected net job change and annual occupational openings by education needed to 2033 According to BLS Projections 2023 - 2033. Education Net Employment Net growth in LF Needed Change No degree needed 280K/yr 177K/yr Shortage of 103K a year Degree needed 390K/yr 345K/yr Shortage of 45K a year REMEMBER: 16-24 year-old Labor Force will be shrinking 2M during this time. *Shortage will need to be made up of 65+ workers Those 188K net workers are needed across critical industries. According to Lightcast data, there are roughly... Job openings in constru tion Job openings in the 'r'-A--""- . I and skilled trades food industry = ; i 4 462K -lit " i 394 K 1.- - _, Job openings in --lif ►,go : '. 1 . 0 community, protective , �: ,v t 4 and personal care Add in roughly job openings in 41 OK nN healthcare that do not require a medical if - _- = degree or certification. Is it realistic to anticipate ate the retirement- age population to carrythe majority of growth in the labor force? 4 About that projected growth in the aging population (Unadjusted) Labor Force Participation Rate—65 yrs. & Over 24% Silent Generation Early Boomer Trend 22% Trend • (what was expected) 20% . • 18% Majority Boomer Trend 16% • (what we're getting) '14% . 12% • 10% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: BLS As boomers age into new cohorts, they will leave the labor force in droves (Unadjusted) Labor Force Participation Rate Age Labor force LFPR % 60-64 12.3M 58% 65-69 6.5M 70-74 3.3M 20% The 75+ LFPR is dropping- 75+ 2.9M 9% not rising. Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics Every generation says they plan to retire earlier than the generation before. Survey: "At what age do you expect to stop working?" Gen X 64 68 Boomers 30% (unretired) Millennials 61 20% Gen Z 57 A‘ 10% 0 Under 40 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 Source:2022 Investopedia Financial Literacy Study `i Simulated Net Change in the US Working-Age Population Excluding Immigrants Landfall 400K More people xitina If older Americans 200K the labor force than entering it. do retire earlier, 2027 2028 2029 2030 then the math of 2024 2025 2026 the landfall getsI -200K even worse. -400K Graph represents population change if 65 year olds (workforce exits) are subtracted from 16 year olds (workforce entrants). `I At the same The labor force participation of teens (16-19) peaked among late Baby time that older Boomers, then fell dramatically when Millennials entered their teen years. Teen Labor Force Participation Rate by Generation Americans are Boomers start Gen X starts Millennials start Gen Z starts retiring, fewer turning 16 turning 16 turning 16 turning 16 60 teens are working also— leaving entry- level jobs 50 unfilled and lowering job prospects for 40 inexperienced college grads. 30 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Lightcast/Hannah Grieser, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Feb 2025 The number of high school graduates will consistently fall YoY percent change in high school graduates, United States -4% -6% -8% -10% -10% 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 1. Nation SOURCE: https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/data-visualizations/graduates/ `� So , Who ' s Gonna Do This Work ? Top 7 largest projected growth jobs to 2033 Think about each job, who typically fills those jobs, and who may need to fill them in the future Employment change, 2023- Title Employment, 2033 33 Home health and personal care aides 4,782.4 820.5 Software developers 1 ,995.7 303.7 Cooks, restaurant 1 ,678.6 244.5 Fast food and counter workers 3,946.5 212.5 General and operations managers 3,840.5 210.4 Medical and health services managers 723.3 160.6 Financial managers 975.3 138.3 Prime-age men have historically been the largest segment of the US labor force but they have increasingly dropped out. Who will fill these jobs? How will this get done? Women Immigration Automation `L Who 's Gonna Do This Work? . - ) WO m E N ? Al ...... ...;.;',...7; ' A.. 411" gti ' 1 .4,4P00 . .' '''1 ''' ''' •, :14z*, • 1. 01\4'' .'' ':"ki 1. :'..' l'.''k.,, .,'. • ‘S'It.' i•''• iV . .' i Y • , : ,.. ,I.,. . ,i, '' 'A. ,il :,:•, i,4:‘) t;1'. k '• , Of the top 100 occupations* with the highest % of women . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • requirea • • • • • • • • • • degree. • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • The majority of these • • • • • • • • • • roles are in healthcare and education *out of 798 total 5-digit SOC occupations Of the top 100 occupations* with the highest °/ootmen . . . 0 • • • • • • • • 1 .4e • • • • • • • • • • ( • , require a tp.A degree. : : : : : : : : •• •• The majority of these • • • • • • • • • • roles are in non-office Yes, ZERO. • • • • • • • • • • jobs like skilled trades, mining/extraction, or transportation. ` *out of 798 total 5-digit SOC occupations ` As demand increases in these non-BA sectors, competition is intensifying for jobs typically sought by those with a BA. Young adults (20-24) with a IAA now have higher unemployment than those with an AA or who did not complete their degree. Annual Unemployment Rate of 20-24-Year-Olds by Education. 15.0 Ate. 10.0 BA Some College, 5.0 No Degree AA 0.0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: Lightcast, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Feb 2025 drir Who 's Gonna Do This Work? iMMI3RANTS ? 9 Er grir ` s By 2033, "natural increase" will fall below zero as deaths outnumber births. Then, despite lower immigration numbers, all net US population growth will come via immigration. of US Population Growth Attributable to Immigration vs Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) •Births-Deaths •Net Immigration 400% 2033: when deaths start 350% to outnumber births, and 300°/o all net population growth comes from immigration 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% IMF -1• 111111111111111 . . . 0% _ -50% -100% -150% Note: All columns 200% (neg. + pos. Mks) add up to 100%. -250% 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 Source: L.ightcast, Congressional Budget Office, 2025 Immigration is the main source of talent that is keeping the US labor market afloat. Since early 2020. . . The native born labor force has Ali hE net not experienced any meaningful growth in the past 5 years. incr ise of the US labor force was roreign-Dorn . Source: Lightcast • BLS/FRED: Quarterly Civilian Labor Force Level, Q4 2019-02 2024 Since 1995, the Foreign- Born Prime-Age Labor In 1995,foreign born men Force for Men has grown represented 1 in 10 prime-age by 1 ilVi * employed males in the labor force Now, they while the US-Born Male are 1 in 4. Labor Force lost 2M 4 Their unemployed % has not changed. DID YOU KNOW? 61% of all drywall installers and 60% of plasterers are immigrants The '22-23 surge in the foreign-born population helped solve the first significant outer band of the storm . CBO Estimates of Net Migration By Category, 2020-2024 2.5M Other foreign nationals 2.0M (undocumented) 1.5M 1.0M Lawful permanent residents 0.5M 0 -0.5M 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Source: Congressional Budget Office And US dependence on immigration is only growing. Do these look familiar? 2010 2023 Construction 23% 1 1 • 29% Professional and business services 17%• •23% Transportation and Utilities 16%• • 21% Mining y°/o • • 12% Financial activities 11% • • 15% Public administration 7%• •10% Educational and health services 12%• •15% Wholesale and retail trade 14% IP • 16% Information 12%0 013% Manufacturing 19%0 •20% Other services 7% • •22% Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 19% 0020% Leisure and hospitality 21% ••22% Source: US Census Bureau `I Three industries lost native born workers from 2010-23. Native Foreign-born Mining 141. -15% 28% Information . -70%0 7% Wholesale and retail trade I -3% 12% Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting J 4°%° 2°%° Public administration . 6°%° 56°!. Other services . 8°%° 13% Educational and health services M 11% 37% Financial activities - 12% 51% Manufacturing 14% 21% Construction 19% 62% Leisure and hospitality _ 20% 18% Professional and business services — 27% 78% Transportation and utilities 36% 91% Source: https://usafacts.org/articles/which-industries-employ-the-most-immigrant-workers/ &I Florida and immigration : 27.4% of labor force i op country of origin : Cuba 21 Haiti 7.3% Venezuela 7. 1 % "Top industries (% of total employment): Columbia 6.5% Agriculture 48% Construction 38% Transport/Warehouse 37% Share of immigrant workforce that is undocumented: 6.7% Over 14K refugees: Venezuala (41 %), Syria (12%) SOURCE: https://map.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/locations/florida/ In the future, 3 ` immigration would 2.75 need to grow exponentially, IY 2.5 but will it? cew Y 2.25 Current The U.S. will need 3.5X Trend the number of immigrants 2 per year to take care of our population vs current 1.75 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 pnn policy levels /V5 H. Who 's Gonna Do This Work? r . g• • 1 , ..._ 'Lil I icial . Intelligence ? Non-Human Augmentation May Be Years Away from Tangible Help in Sectors That Need it Most. Are these the occupations in the direct path of the storm? Occupations most exposed to % of postings needing Al skills Al and LLMs Information 111111116% Management consultants and Professional Services etc. 4% business analysts Finance and Insurance 3.1% Financial managers and directors Manufacturing ill 2.9% 3. Charted and certified accountants Utilities 1.4% 4 Psychologists Construction 0.5% Purchasing managers and directors Accomodation and Food 0.3% Healthcare 0.3% `I Survey:"When Will Al Improve How It isn't that Al won't be a Average US Customer Customers Engage With Business?" Experience Index Scores solution for some labor 72.5 augmentation ; it's just not d SYears 23% 72.0 solution Tor the jobs we'll 715 1 Years 28% soon need most. 71.0 Most importantly, it cannot 705 Now 16% replace face-to-face 70.0 interactions with clients, and it 69.5 Never can't do the work in the 69.0i i i i i 2% occupations most impacted 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Customers Business Leaders by the rising storm. Source: Forrester Source:LivePerson dr • Males • Females Lessons Age 95-99-90-94- �- From Japan 8589 80-84- • 75-79- 70-74- Age distribution of Japan's 65-69- 60-64- population 55-59- 50-54- 45-49- 1 40-44- I / 35-39- 30-34- ttw 25-29- 20-24- 15-19- 10-14- 5-9 -- tg - 0-4- /A. 5M 4M 3M 2M 1M 0 1M 3M 2M 4M 5M What methods is Japan using to adapt to its aging workforce and the shortage of young talent? + Offshoring + Expanding immigration + Invest in labor-saving tech 411.011#01r,, + Delayed retirements • + Increased urbanization Japa • ' eachin • us one important lesson : office and professional jobs are not in the path of the storm. Jaw- Why? People nearing Artificial intelligence Our abundant retirement age apply is also most on track supply of college for less physically to augment or replace graduates also say demanding roles, these same kinds of that these are the mainly in office and roles. roles they want. professional settings. 11. • . , ..., . _. . _... - . .,. . . l'- .....„ ,I. Jt. WHAT WE CAN DO a ,.. . - ,.. . 4... S t 0 r M 1 1 . , ` 4,... '.• ,..1., , Irl I fit . .. ,. ., Preparedness • .41 t -sailill. _ !.v • lc Revisiting The Boomer Mindset: Workers OLD: "Higher education will help me get OLD: "I need to weigh the benefit of a the job I want." *R family against its cost to my career." NEW: With degrees abundant, the NEW: We have to figure out how to i importance will be on having a degree '` ' in dire need make pathways to having families or �, • the spiral continues. I - - r - di OLD: "I will move to get the job I want." NOM. '''' NEW: Labor force mobility is close to all time lows. OLD: "My highest political priorities are } ' creating jobs and decreasing „_ unemployment." Itj OLD: "Immigrants take our jobs, I do not NEW: Employment is becoming a want to increase immigration." zero sum gain. If you bring in jobs, NEW: Immigrants are a strategic it will take workers from other V. asset. There will be no way to sustain companies in your area. It could be _`_ • 1-k."‘ the service economy without them. your company. Revisiting The Boomer Mindset: Employers , - OLD: "When I'm hiring, I know I can expect OLD: "It's a hassle to sort through too many , plenty of applicants, so I can limit the field by applicants, so I will screen out as many as ishoi, iii . creating detailed job descriptions" possible before the interview process." NEW: I need to see as many applicants as NEW: It is all about opening the funnel as ' possible. My job descriptions need to be wide as possible. No one can be seen as general covering the basics only. not having the skills for the job, just at different points away from what is needed. Training and upskilling are the new norm. _. , ''''' OLD: "What we pay is what we pay. If �t o ; one worker doesn't like it, I can find someone else." OLD: "We can afford to lay people off during tn. 4 slow cycles at the company." alp 1.' NEW: It is hard enough finding good R workers, don't add to that trying to NEW: Headcount and demand 410 replace the workers you already had management need to be emphasized ? / that were experienced and solid at going forward. Managers need to learn ......--- their jobs. skills on how to best handle peaks in troughs in business not requiring --f ,-, flexing labor. How Work Can Get Done LOCAL WORKFORCE GLOBALIZATION : PUSH AUTOMATION IMMIGRATION: PULL DEVELOPMENT WORK TO OTHER WORKERS IN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES Al won't replace anyone's job COUNTRIES With fewer workers available, anytime soon,but automation can companies will need data-driven The rise of remote work has help improve efficiency in many The US has shown it cannot strategies both to compete in the opened the door to more industries that are running low on sustain its workforce with US-born open market for talent or to globalization in more industries.As talent.Specific industry data can workers,so immigration will develop the skills of their existing US population growth slows, reveal if this is a viable solution. remain the most important path workforce. reliable global data can show you forward. where to invest. THE RISING STORM .,,.. Category Category Category Category Category 1 2 4 5 • IT and Tech • Education • Durable • Food and • Healthcare Manufacturing Hospitality • Finance and — • Construction Insurance • Retail • Transportation and Trade and Logistics • Entertainment - • Utilities The more avenues you have to getting work done, the less severe the storm's impact A major crisis is coming, the hurricane's biggest damage There are millions who don't have a spouse or other family member living with them. "In 2020, there were 15 million Americans over the age of 50 living alone. In 2022, that figure for this same demographic is almost at 26 million. " Median monthly costs of living arrangements for seniors: * Homemaker services: $4,957 * Home health aide: $5,148 * Nursing home private room: $7,908 SOURCE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gai/2022/12/11/more-aging-baby-boomers-are-living-alone---how-do-they-compare-with-previous-generations/ What is Involved in Local Workforce Development? , 1, P Mentoring/training people of all backgrounds, either working ' for you or not, and adding to them the skill sets that you need. c4 . 11 Finding existing workers in markets that have the skills you i . A need. .d Partnering with schools from Universities to Middle Schools to - add skills to your potential labor pool. _ r Messaging/Marketing to draw people to your company's ,,; ' J �/ contributions to the economy. V;,. .).;-,. - " Creatingsocial networks foryour workers, encouraging them g g to "grow together". THE RISING STORM An analysis of job posting by years experience required : Total Professional Postings 830,439 % of total 0-1 yr exp 103,439 12% 2-9 yrs exp 642,249 77% 10+ 84,751 10% Roughly 1 in 10 postings are geared towards the entry level worker meaning that 90% of postings are not looking to train or upskill a job candidate. Only 10% value over a decade of experience. When your customers hire this way, they need to know that they are looking for what 9 out of 10 of their competitors are. What you steal, gets stolen, driving up costs. Why hire on the tips of the diamond? Highly experienced or older workers Faster speed to contribution (avg tenure is just 3. 9 years for all workers) __ __ Entry level Loyalty, culture alignment Lower financial risk Less chance of having to pay more than your incumbent workers `i Apprenticeships There were nearly 680K people in registered apprenticeship programs in 2025. This is an increase of nearly 25% since 2019. 64% are high school grads. By Industry --i Construction 243,858(35.97%) ✓O O/0* Public Administration(not Employment Retention covered in economic 149,782,22 9%) census) Percentage of apprentices who retain employment after Educational Services 83,777(12.36%) apprenticeship completion Not Provided 81,177(11.97%) Manufacturing ■30,473(4.49%) 4W Other Services(except■25,816(3.81% Public Administration) Health Care and Social.18,824(2.78%) Assistance THE RISING STORM Getting a labor force : What do Gen Zs want in ajob? Better work/life "42% of Gen Zers would "I want to know what is balance "More than half rather be at a company expected of me at work" (56%) of Gen Z said they that gives them a >ense would leave their job if it or purpose than one "The mission or interfered with their that pays more" purpose of my company personal lives" makes me feel my job is "62% of Gen Z plans to important" "I want to make a start or possibly start oiiiererrce before I want their own business in to make money" the future" `11r Business Insider, firstup.io A Lesson from Nurses Top reasons nurses leave their jobs Top reasons nurses stay in their jobs Planned Retirement Doing meaningful work 30% 82% Burnout Positive Interactions 1 in 69% Insufficient Staffing Having Caring and Trusting 21 % Teammates 69% Poor work/life balance SOURCE (I): https://Idi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/top-5-reasons-why-u-s-nurses-are-leaving-their-jobs/, SOURCE (r):McKinsey, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare%our-insights/nursing-in-2023i What Could The Labor Shortage Mean For Key Sectors? Construction Manufacturing Retail Hospitality Healthcare • Developers will • Production and • Fewer in-person • Longer wait • Hospitals and prioritize high-profit delivery times will staff to help times and lower clinics will have to properties with the increase. customers. quality of turn away patients best funding. service • Fewer products will • Larger businesses • Wait times will • Small homes and be available to both that can pay more • Fewer hotel increase for renovations will the wholesale and will poach staff rooms and standard care lose priority. consumer markets. from small dining options businesses. available • Elder care services • Construction times • Companies will (including care will increase. process fewer • Many local • Many local homes and home orders. businesses may be businesses may health providers) • Supply chains forced to close. be forced to will be stretched to interruptions will close their limits. cause delays. SCAN o - o .• %T111111.1 Ron Hetrick • � 'i. •. ' bir � fir• . �� • ron.hetrick(a�Iightcast.io � ''* • II • ' %.• °:rfe5.1b • • Iinkedin.com/in/ronlhetrick/ To Download The Rising Storm IC CLAY FLORIDA Economic Development Corporation POSSIBILITY FLOWS I JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE 2nd Quarterly Luncheon Presentation for 2025